Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 2, 2026
Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. They also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Rich Eisen said
I believe the Jaguars will beat the Tennessee titans, but not get the other results they need to be the one seed. They will be the AFC South champions.
- Where it was said
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)
- The episode
- Hour 3: Rich’s Top 5, NFL Wild Card Matchup Predictions, plus Michael Irvin
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidJan 2
- GradedAug 13–17
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seeding, Byes and Home Field | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Division Winners | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Game Outcome Picks | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Playoff Picks | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Award Picks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| All | 17 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
22 checkable claims — 12 playoff picks, 6 game outcome picks, 2 seeding, byes and home field, 1 award pick and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 17 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 22 have settled, averaging 77.3 out of 100, against 45.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Seeding, Byes and Home Field1 hit · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
- 100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.06 difficulty = +106 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 106
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- checked as:
- seeds 2–4 host a wild-card game — the bracket cannot separate them further
- actual tier:
- host
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (missed the playoffs)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 2
- claimed tier:
- host
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Carolina Panthers to take the top seed
“making the Panthers the five seed going to Carolina”
0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- checked as:
- seeds 5–7 visit a wild-card game — the bracket cannot separate them further
- actual tier:
- host
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (missed the playoffs)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 5
- claimed tier:
- visitor
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Division Winners1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
- 100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.06 difficulty = +106 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 106
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- won the division:
- yes
Game Outcome Picks4 hits · 2 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
San Francisco 49ers to beat Seahawks
“And I think San Francisco beats the Seahawks on Sunday night, making the Panthers the five seed”
0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 3): Seahawks by 2.5 · underdog pick, 49ers 43%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 13-3
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- SF
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Tennessee titans
“I believe the Jaguars will beat the Tennessee titans”
100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 4): Jaguars by 12.5 · favorite pick, Jaguars about 6 in 7 (85%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 7-41
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- 0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.06 difficulty = −106 skill
Closing line (Jan 4): Ravens by 4.5 · favorite pick, Ravens about 2 in 3 (66%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 24-26
- skill:
- −106
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Panthers
“The Panthers, I think, are going to lose to Tampa, but get in because Atlanta beats the Saints.”
100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 3): Buccaneers by 3 · favorite pick, Buccaneers 58%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- TB
- score:
- 14-16
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- 100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 4): Falcons by 4.5 · favorite pick, Falcons about 2 in 3 (64%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- ATL
- score:
- 17-19
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- ATL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- ATL
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Houston Texans to beat Ravens
“I think the Texans would beat the Ravens. Don't you think? I think the Texans are about to go on a fat run.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.06 difficulty = +106 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 44-10
- skill:
- 106
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Playoff Picks11 hits · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Carolina Panthers to make the playoffs
“the first game of wildcard weekend is going to be at Carolina... the Seahawks visiting the Panthers”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.06 difficulty = +106 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- CAR
- skill:
- 106
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs
“I think the Rams and the Eagles wrap up wild card weekend”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- LAR
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Philadelphia Eagles to make the playoffs
“I think the Rams and the Eagles wrap up wild card weekend in a game that everyone's gonna sit down and watch.”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- PHI
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs
“Bills at Jaguars is gonna be the night game.”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.06 difficulty = +106 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- skill:
- 106
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Made the playoffs100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
“Chargers. Jim Harbaugh. Let's go. And Justin Herbert coming into New England, I think will be the NBC Sunday night game.”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Seattle Seahawks to make the playoffs
“it's gonna be the Seahawks visiting the Panthers for a rematch of what we saw in week 17”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.06 difficulty = +106 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- SEA
- skill:
- 106
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Houston Texans to make the playoffs
“they open up the wild card triple header at home against the Houston Texans”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- HOU
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs
“Brady and Burkhart are going back to Chicago for Packers and Bears”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- GB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“they open up the wild card triple header at home against the Houston Texans”
Missed the playoffs0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 1
New England Patriots to make the playoffs
“And Justin Herbert coming into New England, I think will be the NBC Sunday night game.”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.06 difficulty = +106 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NE
- skill:
- 106
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Chicago Bears to make the playoffs
“Brady and Burkhart are going back to Chicago for Packers and Bears”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.06 difficulty = +106 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- CHI
- skill:
- 106
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Award Picks1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Tyler Shough to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“I think this kid, Tyler Schott, could be the offensive rookie of the year.”
Tetairoa McMillan woncalled Tyler Shough0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Jayden Daniels, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tyler Shough
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Who this take is about
Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots
Others on the same people
Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be taken No. 1 overall by the Raiders and to be thrown into the starting lineup immediately, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta within weeks.Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be the No. 1 overall pick and land with the Raiders, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta.JP Acosta · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Acosta expects John Harbaugh's Giants to jump to roughly seven wins in year one, and forecast several offseason moves: Aaron Rodgers returning to Pittsburgh, Daniel Jones returning to the Colts, Kirk Cousins being released by Atlanta, and Brandon Aiyuk leaving San Francisco.Gregg Rosenthal · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Rosenthal gave their award ballot: Drake May atop their MVP list (though they expect Matthew Stafford to actually win), Myles Garrett for Defensive Player of the Year, Bijan Robinson for Offensive Player of the Year, Tetairoa McMillan for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Carson Schwesinger for Defensive Rookie of the Year, Mike Macdonald for Coach of the Year and Broncos O-line coach Zach Strief for Assistant Coach of the Year. They also expect Kirk Cousins to be cut by Atlanta.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Pittsburgh Steelers · Hit 100
Brockman argued the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Foxborough, meaning the Patriots will finish as the No. 1 seed, and called their shot that the Chargers beat Denver in Week 18. They also declared the Bears a team of destiny who will win the NFC, said the Steelers will end their playoff win drought, and that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Pittsburgh Steelers · Hit 100
Brockman argued the Eagles' defense is the NFL's best and will drag a mediocre offense to the NFC championship, that the NFC North sends only two teams to the playoffs with the Bears among them, that the Rams are the league's best team, that a healthy Brock Purdy makes the 49ers an NFC threat who will beat the Saints and Falcons, and that the Panthers win the NFC South.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Minnesota Vikings · Miss 0
Brockman argued the Seahawks are the NFC's best team and will land the No. 1 seed, that Jacksonville will reach 11 wins and steal the AFC South from Indianapolis, that JJ McCarthy will lead the Vikings to the playoffs, and that Matthew Stafford will be an MVP finalist.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Detroit Lions · Miss 0
Brockman doubled down that the Ravens will win the AFC North, named Jonathan Taylor the NFL's MVP, locked in their seven NFC playoff teams with the Eagles as the NFC East's lone qualifier, and predicted Justin Fields will be the Jets' starting quarterback in 2026.