Greg JenningsJan 17, 2026

Jennings picks the Texans to upset the Patriots, believes CJ Stroud can outplay Drake May, thinks Caleb Williams regains the top-QB-in-his-class title with a win, and picks the Seahawks over the 49ers.

Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · all settled

50Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls

100A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

2 of 2Settlednone still waiting

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Greg Jennings said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I'm going Texans over the Pats.

Greg Jennings, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: First Things First (podcast)
The episode: Divisional Round preview, Most to Gain & Lose, Mahomes comeback, Upset Alert & Nick’s Picks
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidJan 16
GradedAug 13–17

1Seattle Seahawks to beat forty niners“But you are picking the Seahawks. I'm picking the Seahawks.”
2Houston Texans to beat Pats“I'm going Texans over the Pats... So I I like the Houston Texans in this game.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Seattle Seahawks to beat forty niners¹	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	100	0
Houston Texans to beat Pats²	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	100	−100
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled			50	100

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to beat forty niners
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
Closing line (Jan 17): Seahawks by 6.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks 72%.
How this was scored
won:
SEA
score:
6-41
skill:
0
they picked:
SEA
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
SEA
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Houston Texans
Houston Texans to beat Pats
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
Closing line (Jan 18): Patriots by 3 · underdog pick, Texans 38%.
How this was scored
won:
NE
score:
16-28
skill:
−100
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
NE
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
50naive 100