Josh Holmes· Nov 2, 2022

Holmes, previewing the midterms a week out, called Nevada a Republican pickup for Adam Laxalt, said he felt very good about Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania after the Fetterman debate, and predicted Brian Kemp would beat Stacey Abrams by a wide margin in Georgia's governor's race.

“I expect this to be a very close race, but at this point, everything points to an Adam Laczal victory.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 3 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“So I think that is is definitely gonna be a Republican pickup. ... I expect this to be a very close race, but at this point, everything points to an Adam Laczal victory.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“So I I like Oz's chances in Pennsylvania a lot. ... that final two, three, 4%, that is disproportionately going to break Oz's way, which is why I feel really good about that Pennsylvania senate race.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
John K. Fetterman
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mehmet Oz
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“governor Kemp is also on that ballot and is blowing the doors off of Stacey Abrams ... this is not a six point race. He's... Kemp's gonna win this thing by a margin”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Brian Kemp
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Georgia gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Brian Kemp
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.