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Dylan SandersSep 17, 2026

Dylan Sanders picked the Saints to upset the Ravens 23-17 in a low-scoring game.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Saints (podcast)Hear the original

98Hit · out of 100
Saints 24–17What happenedcalled Saints by 6 · won by 7
32.1A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
97.62This callout of 100
+127.1Skillafter difficulty

What Dylan Sanders said

So I'm going Saints 23, Ravens 17.
Our reading: New Orleans Saints 23 — Ravens 17
The episode
SAINTS SQUAD SHOW: Saints May Have To Pick Their Poison Between Lamar Jackson or Derrick Henry
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidSep 17
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 21

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 97.6 out of 100, against 32.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsNew Orleans Saints

    New Orleans Saints 23 — Ravens 17

    What happenedSaints 24–17called Saints by 6 · won by 7
    97.62Hit · naive 32.1
    97.62this call32.1a naive guess65.52better than naive1.94difficulty+127.1skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Ravens by 8.5, total 45.5 · this 23–17 calls a Saints win (by 6; the line gave the Saints about 1 in 4 (24%)) and fewer points (40).

    How this was scored
    score:
    24-17
    skill:
    127.1
    they picked:
    NO
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    97.62
    baseline:
    32.1
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    7
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    −0.52
    predicted margin:
    6
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

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