Eva Geitheim#53 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 9, 2026
Geitheim's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
What Eva Geitheim said
Eva Geitheim, the lead quote
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- NFL Week 1 Picks From the MMQB Staff: Texans Host Bills in Early AFC Clash
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 9
- PlayedSep 9–14
- GradedSep 11–16
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Outcome Picks | 12 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| All | 12 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
16 checkable claims — 16 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 16 have settled, averaging 75 out of 100, against 62.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Game Outcome Picks12 hits · 4 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
- Chiefs 31–10Broncos at Chiefs0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Closing line (Sep 14): Chiefs by 2.5 · underdog pick, Broncos 46%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 10-31
- skill:
- −200
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Bears 59–37Bears at Panthers100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bears by 3 · favorite pick, Bears 60%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 59-37
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Cardinals
“Cardinals at Chargers — Eva Geitheim: Chargers”
Cardinals 26–14Cardinals at Chargers0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Chargers by 8.5 · favorite pick, Chargers about 4 in 5 (79%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- ARI
- score:
- 26-14
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAC
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Commanders
“Commanders at Eagles — Eva Geitheim: Eagles”
Eagles 24–22Commanders at Eagles100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Eagles by 6 · favorite pick, Eagles about 2 in 3 (68%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 22-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Raiders 27–13Dolphins at Raiders100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Raiders by 3 · favorite pick, Raiders 60%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- LV
- score:
- 13-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LV
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- LV
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Bills 36–31Bills at Texans0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bills by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 50%, Texans 50%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 36-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Jaguars 34–10Browns at Jaguars100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Jaguars by 8.5 · favorite pick, Jaguars about 4 in 5 (79%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 10-34
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Buccaneers
“Buccaneers at Bengals — Eva Geitheim: Bengals”
Bengals 33–27Buccaneers at Bengals100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bengals by 3.5 · favorite pick, Bengals about 2 in 3 (64%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 27-33
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Falcons
“Falcons at Steelers — Eva Geitheim: Steelers”
Steelers 20–13Falcons at Steelers100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Steelers by 6.5 · favorite pick, Steelers 72%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 13-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Lions 31–30Saints at Lions100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Lions by 7 · favorite pick, Lions about 3 in 4 (73%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 30-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Ravens 41–23Ravens at Colts100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Ravens by 3 · favorite pick, Ravens 59%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 41-23
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Jets 23–10Jets at Titans100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Titans by 1.5 · a toss-up, Jets 48%, Titans 52%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NYJ
- score:
- 23-10
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TEN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Vikings 39–22Packers at Vikings100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Vikings by 1.5 · a toss-up, Packers 47%, Vikings 53%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- MIN
- score:
- 22-39
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Giants 28–20Cowboys at Giants0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Cowboys by 3 · favorite pick, Cowboys 60%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NYG
- score:
- 20-28
- skill:
- −200
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NYG
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- 49ers 27–749ers at Rams100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Closing line (Sep 10): Rams by 3.5 · underdog pick, 49ers about 1 in 3 (34%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- SF
- score:
- 27-7
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- SF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Seahawks 13–10Patriots at Seahawks100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 9): Seahawks by 3 · favorite pick, Seahawks 60%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 10-13
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on each- Patriots at SeahawksSeahawks 13Patriots 1027 calls →
- 49ers at Rams49ers 27Rams 735 calls →
- Saints at LionsLions 31Saints 3020 calls →
- Jets at TitansJets 23Titans 1020 calls →
- Falcons at SteelersSteelers 20Falcons 1327 calls →
- Browns at JaguarsJaguars 34Browns 1037 calls →
- Ravens at ColtsRavens 41Colts 2320 calls →
- Bills at TexansBills 36Texans 3134 calls →
- Bears at PanthersBears 59Panthers 3723 calls →
- Buccaneers at BengalsBengals 33Buccaneers 2724 calls →
- Cardinals at ChargersCardinals 26Chargers 1420 calls →
- Dolphins at RaidersRaiders 27Dolphins 1339 calls →
- Packers at VikingsVikings 39Packers 2235 calls →
- Commanders at EaglesEagles 24Commanders 2227 calls →
- Cowboys at GiantsGiants 28Cowboys 2032 calls →
- Broncos at ChiefsChiefs 31Broncos 1042 calls →
Who this take is about
Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, Las Vegas Raiders, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks
Others on the same people
Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.John Pluym · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Pluym picked the Giants, Patriots, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Colts, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.