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Kirk HerbstreitSep 11, 2026

Herbstreit made a full slate of Week 1 picks — Lions, Ravens, Bears, Bills, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Titans, Eagles, Packers and Cowboys — and also said they still think Seattle is the team to beat in the NFC West.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · 1 waiting
50Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
100A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Games calledeveryone’s picks below
1Waitingnot graded yet

What Kirk Herbstreit said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
The Jags are gonna win, but it's gonna be closer than eight and a half.
Kirk Herbstreit, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)
The episode
PMS 2.0 1622 - Rams vs. 49ers Recap, NFL Week 1 Preview/Picks, Nick Saban, Bill Cowher, Dana White, Kirk Herbstreit, & AJ Hawk
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidSep 11
  2. PlayedSep 13
  3. GradedSep 15
  1. 1Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Cleveland Browns“I'm going with the Jags. I'm gonna the Jags are gonna win, but it's gonna be closer in eight and a half.”
  2. 2Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Cincinnati Bengals“I don't think the Bengals are allowed to win in the month of September... So I'm definitely going with Tampa Bay.”
  3. 3Seattle Seahawks to win the division“I still like Seattle... I still think Seattle could be the team to beat.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Cleveland Browns1Game Outcome PicksJaguars 34–101001000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Cincinnati Bengals2Game Outcome PicksBengals 33–270100−200
Seattle Seahawks to win the division3Division Winners————
3 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · 1 waiting50100

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksJacksonville Jaguars

    Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Cleveland Browns

    What happenedJaguars 34–10Browns at Jaguars
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Jaguars by 8.5 · favorite pick, Jaguars about 4 in 5 (79%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    JAX
    score:
    10-34
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    JAX
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Cincinnati Bengals

    What happenedBengals 33–27Buccaneers at Bengals
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Bengals by 3.5 · underdog pick, Buccaneers about 1 in 3 (36%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    CIN
    score:
    27-33
    skill:
    −200
    they picked:
    TB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    CIN
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Division WinnersSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks to win the division

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    50naive 100

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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