Kirk Herbstreit· Sep 11, 2026
Herbstreit made a full slate of Week 1 picks — Lions, Ravens, Bears, Bills, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Titans, Eagles, Packers and Cowboys — and also said he still thinks Seattle is the team to beat in the NFC West.
“The Jags are gonna win, but it's gonna be closer than eight and a half.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast) · read the original →
11 checkable claims — 10 game outcome picks and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
10 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 60 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Buccaneers at Bengals 31 calls
- Bears at Panthers 28 calls
- Jets at Titans 25 calls
- Saints at Lions 22 calls
- Browns at Jaguars 38 calls
- Ravens at Colts 24 calls
- Bills at Texans 46 calls
- Packers at Vikings 42 calls
- Commanders at Eagles 32 calls
- Cowboys at Giants 42 calls
11 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksDallas CowboysSep 11, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to beat Giants
“Herbie. I'm going with Shadi there. Cowboys.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYG
- score:
- 20-28
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NYG
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsSep 11, 2026
Chicago Bears to beat Carolina Panthers
“I'm gonna go with Ben Johnson, and I think they're gonna get to cover on the road to open it up, cover the three.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 59-37
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersSep 11, 2026
Green Bay Packers to beat Minnesota Vikings
“Kirby, who do you like? Green Bay. For sure. Green Bay.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIN
- score:
- 22-39
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksTennessee TitansSep 11, 2026
Tennessee Titans to beat Jets
“I'm going, Titans at home. Homer. I'm doing it.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYJ
- score:
- 23-10
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TEN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksPhiladelphia EaglesSep 11, 2026
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Washington Commanders
“Let me go with Philly. Okay. Philly, we need to cover. Six.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 22-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 11, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Cleveland Browns
“I'm going with the Jags. I'm gonna the Jags are gonna win, but it's gonna be closer in eight and a half.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 10-34
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensSep 11, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to beat Indianapolis Colts
“But I'm going Baltimore here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 41-23
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsSep 11, 2026
Detroit Lions to beat New Orleans
“I feel like Detroit coming off a disappointing year. They wanna make a statement early... I like Detroit there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 30-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsSep 11, 2026
Buffalo Bills to beat Houston Texans
“I want the Bills to win because I have them the next week opening up their new stadium against the Lions. So I'm gonna go with just pulling for the Bills here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 36-31
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 11, 2026
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Cincinnati Bengals
“I don't think the Bengals are allowed to win in the month of September... So I'm definitely going with Tampa Bay.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 27-33
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Division WinnersSeattle SeahawksSep 11, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to win the division
“I still like Seattle... I still think Seattle could be the team to beat.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Baltimore RavensHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.