Armin Thomas· Nov 6, 2022

In Split Ticket's final 2022 gubernatorial ratings, he forecast Republican wins in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin among the tossups, Democratic wins in Kansas and Oregon, and safe or likely holds elsewhere, including comfortable Democratic victories in Connecticut, Pennsylvania and New York and Republican holds in Alaska, Georgia, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Texas.

“Split Ticket's first tossup race moves off the board, with Lake favored as the winner, in a victory for MAGA Republicans.”

published in writing · Split Ticket · read the original →

19 checkable claims — 17 race winners and 2 race margins — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 19 have settled, averaging 89.5 out of 100, against 80.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

19 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“she seems a sure bet for a victory nonetheless. Final rating: Safe Republican”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-sd
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Safe Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Kristi Noem
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 South Dakota gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kristi Noem
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“Final rating: Safe Democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ct
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Safe Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ned Lamont
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Connecticut gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ned Lamont
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“The blue trends in the Twin Cities should keep Minnesota tantalizingly out of reach for the GOP... Final rating: Likely Democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-mn
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Likely Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Tim Walz
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Walz
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“Final rating: Likely Republican”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Likely Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Brian Kemp
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Georgia gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Brian Kemp
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“Split Ticket's first tossup race moves off the board, with Lake favored as the winner... Final rating: Leans Republican”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-az
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Leans Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Katie Hobbs
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kari Lake
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 6, 2022
“Lamont is likely to become the first Democrat to win a Connecticut gubernatorial election by more than 5 points since 1986.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-governor-ct
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
what happened:
12.9
in their words:
more than 5 points
read as:
as written
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ned Lamont
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Ned Lamont
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Connecticut gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
12.9
their party:
Democratic
their range:
5 to 100
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“Kelly is currently the favorite because of the aforementioned reasons. Final rating: Leans Democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ks
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Leans Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Laura Kelly
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Kansas gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Laura Kelly
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“Split Ticket is tipping the Silver State to the GOP. Final rating: Leans Republican”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Leans Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Joe Lombardo
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Nevada gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Joe Lombardo
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“the data and fundamentals favor Kotek... Final rating: Leans Democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-or
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Leans Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Tina Kotek
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Oregon gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tina Kotek
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“for practical purposes, this race is secure for Shapiro in all but name. Final rating: Likely Democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Likely Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Josh Shapiro
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Josh Shapiro
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“Hochul isn't expected to win by Biden's 24 points, but she should still win comfortably... Final rating: Likely Democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ny
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Likely Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Kathy Hochul
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 New York gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kathy Hochul
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“It would be somewhat surprising if she actually won... Final rating: Likely Republican”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ok
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Likely Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Kevin Stitt
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Oklahoma gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kevin Stitt
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“unless there is a truly massive polling error, Whitmer should win re-election. Final rating: Likely Democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-mi
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Likely Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Gretchen Whitmer
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Michigan gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Gretchen Whitmer
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“This race moves off the board. Final rating: Safe Republican”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-tx
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Safe Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Greg Abbott
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Texas gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Greg Abbott
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“the political headwinds seem set to sink Evers' candidacy, in a victory for election deniers and MAGA Republicans in the state of Wisconsin. Final rating: Leans Republican”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-wi
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Leans Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Tony Evers
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Michels
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“this race is on the board, but Dunleavy should win comfortably. Final rating: Likely Republican”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ak
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Likely Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Mike Dunleavy
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Alaska gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mike Dunleavy
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 6, 2022
“A high-single-digit Kemp win seems like the median outcome in Georgia, with thousands of Warnock voters crossing over.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 25+75 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-governor-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
75
topic:
elections
what happened:
7.5
in their words:
A high-single-digit Kemp win seems like the median outcome
read as:
as written
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Brian Kemp
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Brian Kemp
accuracy:
100
baseline:
25
race name:
2022 Georgia gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
7.5
their party:
Republican
their range:
0 to 9
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“Mills should win, barring something truly exceptional here... Final rating: Likely Democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-me
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Likely Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Janet Mills
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Maine gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Janet Mills
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2022
“Michelle Lujan Grisham should win barring a spectacular polling miss... Final rating: Likely Democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-nm
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Likely Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Michelle Lujan Grisham
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Michelle Lujan Grisham
days before the vote when called:
1
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.