Isaac Saul· Oct 8, 2026
Saul predicts Republicans hold the Senate while Democrats take the House, with Democratic wins in Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed), Maine (Troy Jackson), North Carolina and Georgia, and no Democratic win in Kansas.
“I think they are not gonna control the senate, so they won't get the majority, which is going to make the house of representatives the battleground where democrats control things”
said on air, transcribed by us · Tangle (podcast) · read the original →
7 checkable claims — 5 race winners and 2 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2026
“North Carolina seems like they have locked up.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2026
“Georgia, that seems like they have locked up.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Control of CongressOct 8, 2026
“which is going to make the house of representatives the battleground where democrats control things and grind things to a halt”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2026
“I think that Democrats are going to win in Michigan. I think Abdul Al Said's gonna win.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2026
“I think they're gonna win in Maine with Troy Jackson despite the fact that Graham Plattner got forced off the ballot.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Control of CongressOct 8, 2026
“I think Republicans are gonna hold the senate.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 8, 2026
“It feels really Kansas, no way in my opinion.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.