Ben Shapiro· Nov 2, 2022

Shapiro forecasts a sweeping Republican midterm wave, arguing Democrats have no coherent message. He specifically calls Kathy Hochul to lose the New York governorship to Lee Zeldin, Cheri Beasley to lose North Carolina's Senate race, Mandela Barnes to lose to Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, Charlie Crist to be walloped by Ron DeSantis in Florida, and raises the prospect of Republicans reaching 54 Senate seats.

“My sleeper pick for the democrat who definitely should win, who is not going to win.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Ben Shapiro Show · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 4 race winners and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 96 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

54They said

49What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Seat CountsNov 2, 2022
“There is a serious possibility the Republicans walk away from the midterms with 54 seats in the senate.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 80-80.8 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−80.8
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
in their words:
a serious possibility the Republicans walk away from the midterms with 54 seats
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
0
baseline:
80
they said:
54
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“Remember a time when Mandela Barnes is actually leading senator Ron Johnson in the polling? Well, no longer... Mandela Barnes about to have another think coming when the election results come in next Tuesday.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-wi
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ron Johnson
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron Johnson
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“No. It's because she's a bad candidate and she's about to lose. [on North Carolina senate Democrat candidate Sherry Beasley]”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-nc
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ted Budd
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Budd
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“Charlie Crist running for governor of Florida who's about to just get walloped. I mean, the polls have him down about 10 points to Ron DeSantis.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ron DeSantis
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron DeSantis
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“So let's start with Kathy Hochul over in New York. My sleeper pick for the democrat who definitely should win, who is not going to win.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-ny
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Kathy Hochul
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 New York gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Lee Zeldin
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.