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Greg CosellOct 30, 2025

Cosell says the Bills, playing the way they have been, cannot beat the Chiefs defense, and expects Josh Allen to have to drop back around 40 times in the matchup. They also praised Kyle Hamilton and the Ravens' rookie edge from Marshall, and said C.J. Stroud must be a pocket quarterback to succeed.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

0Miss · out of 100
Game Outcome PicksThe callsettled
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
−156Skillafter difficulty

What Greg Cosell said

I don't think they can beat this defense, this Chiefs defense running the ball the way they have
Our reading: Kansas City Chiefs to beat Buffalo
The episode
THE HERD - Hour 2 - Patrick Mahomes is a complete QB, Caleb Williams' recent play, ranking NFL QBs, Greg Cosell
The original
Hear the original

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidOct 30, 2025
  2. GradedAug 5, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksKansas City Chiefs

    Kansas City Chiefs to beat Buffalo

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.56difficulty−156skill

    Closing line (Nov 2): Chiefs by 2.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs 55%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    21-28
    skill:
    −156
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    BUF
    difficulty:
    1.56
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

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