Pat GustavsonJan 6, 2026
Gustafson picked the Bears, Eagles, Rams, Patriots, Jaguars and Texans in the wild card round, the Rams and Bears in the NFC, the Broncos and Patriots in the AFC, and the Patriots to beat the Bears in the Super Bowl. Their awards slate included Stafford for MVP, Puka for OPOY and Liam Cohen for Coach of the Year.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)Hear the original
What Pat Gustavson said
I do have the Patriots over the Bears in the Super Bowl, and I'm really not happy about it.
- Where it was said
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)
- The episode
- Black Monday Reactions, Playoff Predictions, & Award Picks - Podcast for 1/6
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidJan 6
- GradedAug 13–Oct 9
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Game Outcome Picks | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Conference Champions | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coach Award Picks | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Super Bowl Picks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Award Picks | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| All | 9 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
20 checkable claims — 9 game outcome picks, 5 award picks, 2 coach award picks, 2 conference champions, 1 pro bowl and all-pro call and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 15 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 20 have settled, averaging 50.8 out of 100, against 16.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Charles Cross to make Protector of the Year
“I'm gonna go Charles Cross.”
Joe Thuney woncalled Charles Cross0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- protector_of_the_year
- naive:
- we hold no 2024 winner, so the naive pick scored 0
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Charles Cross
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Joe Thuney
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Game Outcome Picks6 hits · 1 close call · 2 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
- 0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1 difficulty = −100 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 27-31
- skill:
- −100
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Chicago Bears to beat Packers
“I think the Bears are just gonna and they've already beaten them.”
100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 10): Packers by 2.5 · underdog pick, Bears 45%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 27-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- 66.67Close
66.67 − 22.92 naive = 43.75 × 1 difficulty = +43.75 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- note:
- these two never played, so the pick is graded on the parts of it that happened
- skill:
- 43.75
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- ceiling:
- 66.67
- accuracy:
- 66.67
- baseline:
- 22.92
- opponent:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- 14 of 32 clubs reached the postseason, 8 won a game there
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- right opponent:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- picked won aplayoff game:
- yes
- picked reached the playoffs:
- yes
- opponent reached the playoffs:
- yes
- 100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
Closing line (Jan 10): Rams by 10 · favorite pick, Rams about 4 in 5 (81%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 34-31
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CAR
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Chicago Bears to beat Eagles
“And then my other matchup is the Bears and the Eagles. ... Give me give me the bears.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 24-15
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Bills
“And I can see them throwing up a dud here against the hottest team in football right now.”
0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 11): Jaguars by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 47%, Jaguars 53%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 27-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
New England Patriots to beat Chargers
“I like the Patriots. Kinda definitively here.”
100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 11): Patriots by 3.5 · favorite pick, Patriots 64%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 3-16
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Houston Texans to beat Steelers
“I I I like Houston here. Steelers aren't very good and the Texans are red hot.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
Closing line (Jan 12): Texans by 3 · favorite pick, Texans 58%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 30-6
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- 100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 18-15
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Conference Champions1 hit · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Chicago Bears to reach the Super Bowl
“Give me the fucking Chicago Bengals. Ben Johnson takes the team to the promised land in year one.”
NE and SEA wonpicked CHI0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
New England Patriots to reach the Super Bowl
“And give me New England. I will pick the boys... So will I.”
NE and SEA wonpicked NE100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
Coach Award Picks2 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Vance Joseph to win Assistant Coach of the Year
“I'm gonna go with Vance Joseph.”
Josh McDaniels woncalled Vance Joseph0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- assistant_coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Vance Joseph
- naive:
- we hold no 2024 winner, so the naive pick scored 0
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Josh McDaniels
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Liam Cohen to win Coach of the Year
“I think Liam Cohen went into a worse situation and turned it around more. So I'll go with our boy.”
Mike Vrabel woncalled Liam Coen0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Liam Coen
- naive:
- the naive pick was Kevin O'Connell, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Mike Vrabel
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Super Bowl Picks1 close callShow ▸Hide ▾
New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl
“I do have the Patriots over the Bears in the Super Bowl, and I'm really not happy about it.”
SEA won itpicked NE50Close50 − 0 naive = 50 × 1 difficulty = +50 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 50
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Award Picks2 hits · 3 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Carson Schwesinger to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
“But I I gotta go Carson Schwesinger here, another Brown.”
Carson Schwesinger won100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Jared Verse, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 100
- player:
- Carson Schwesinger
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Carson Schwesinger
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Matthew Stafford to win MVP
“Yes. I agree. I I'd say I think Stafford locked it up this week.”
Matthew Stafford won100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 100
- player:
- Matthew Stafford
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Drake Maye to win MVP
“I will market Drake May will win multiple MVPs in his career.”
Matthew Stafford woncalled Drake Maye0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Puka Nacua to win Offensive Player of the Year
“I think the answer to these three is Puka.”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba woncalled Puka Nacua0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Saquon Barkley, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Puka Nacua
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Tyler Shough to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“I'll go Tyler Shuck. ... So I will go Shakir.”
Tetairoa McMillan woncalled Tyler Shough0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Jayden Daniels, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tyler Shough
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Who this take is about
Charles Cross, Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, Chicago Bears, New England Patriots, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns, Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye, Puka Nacua, Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.John Middlekauff · Draft Bust Calls · Caleb Williams · Miss 0
Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. They are pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying they'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. They also see Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.Bobby Skinner · Trade and Signing Calls · Stefon Diggs · Miss 0
Skinner predicted Daniel Jones signs with and wins the starting job in Indianapolis, Milton Williams to New England, Lavonte David back to Tampa, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to the Giants, DJ Reid to Arizona, Hassan Reddick to Washington and Justin Fields staying in Pittsburgh, plus alternates they had listed.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.