John Middlekauff#48 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 10, 2025
Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. They are pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying they'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. They also see Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.
Said on air or in an interview · 3 and Out with John Middlekauff (podcast)Hear the original
What John Middlekauff said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI would be stunned if one of those two guys doesn't win the MVP this year.
- Where it was said
- 3 and Out with John Middlekauff (podcast)
- The episode
- 3 & Out - Is Caleb Williams a BUST, QB and Coach relationship, 49ers CUT Moody
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidSep 10, 2025
- GradedAug 7–Nov 10, 2026
- 1Caleb Williams to disappoint at the next level“if I was a betting man right now, I would say this is not gonna work. I don't think Caleb is good... you would put money on Caleb Williams not working out... worst case scenario, Kayleb Williams is a bust, which is a tough word to say when you draft a guy number one overall”
- 2Josh Allen to win MVP“Josh all and Lamar Jackson are gonna continue to rack up MVPs. I would be stunned if one of those two guys doesn't win the MVP this year.”
- 3Lamar Jackson to win MVP“Josh all and Lamar Jackson are gonna continue to rack up MVPs. I would be stunned if one of those two guys doesn't win the MVP this year.”
- 4John Mateer to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)“And John Mattier is going to be a first round pick.”
- 5John Mateer to be picked “top fifteen to twenty pick” (picks 1–15)“He will be in the Heisman mix, and he will be discussed as a top fifteen to twenty pick.”
- 6Season Win Totals“Now, after watching that last night, like, yeah, six seven wins, that's what I feel like, that's gonna be your quarterback”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams to disappoint at the next level1 | Draft Bust Calls | — | 0 | 100 | −194 | |
| Josh Allen to win MVP2 | Award Picks | Matthew Stafford won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lamar Jackson to win MVP3 | Award Picks | Matthew Stafford won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| John Mateer to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)4 | Mock Draft Picks | Went undrafted | 0 | 50 | — | |
| John Mateer to be picked “top fifteen to twenty pick” (picks 1–15)5 | Mock Draft Picks | Went undrafted | 0 | 50 | — | |
| “Now, after watching that last night, like, yeah, six seven…”6 | Season Win Totals | — | — | — | — | |
| 6 calls · 5 misses · 1 too vague to check | 0 | 40 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive6 claims — 2 award picks, 2 mock draft picks, 1 draft bust call and 1 season win total — the 5 we can check each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 calls we can check have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The other one was too vague to check, so it is not graded.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Draft Bust CallsCaleb WilliamsChicago Bears
Caleb Williams to disappoint at the next level
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1.94difficulty=−194skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- pick:
- 1
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- the pick returned what picks at that cost typically return
- skill:
- −194
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- best finish:
- QB5 in 2025
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- had to reach:
- QB8
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- seasons played:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- measured against:
- the 31 QBs taken within 16 picks of 1, across every draft we hold
2Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo Bills
Josh Allen to win MVP
What happenedMatthew Stafford woncalled Josh Allen0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.94difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
3Award PicksLamar JacksonBaltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson to win MVP
What happenedMatthew Stafford woncalled Lamar Jackson0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.94difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
John Mateer to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent undrafted0Miss · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- John Mateer
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- first round pick (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
John Mateer to be picked “top fifteen to twenty pick” (picks 1–15)
What happenedWent undrafted0Miss · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- John Mateer
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- top fifteen to twenty pick (picks 1–15)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
6Season Win TotalsChicago Bears
“Now, after watching that last night, like, yeah, six seven wins, that's what I feel like, that's gonna be your quarterback”
VerdictToo vague to checkToo vague to check: we could not tell what would count as right, so it stays on the record without a score.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
0naive 40
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota.John Breech · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Breech picked the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night by a score of 24-17.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 62
Dajani picked the Bills to edge the Vikings 24-23.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 74
Dubin picked Buffalo to win a low-scoring Monday night game in Minnesota, 20-14.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Sullivan picked the Bills to beat the Vikings 24-17.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.