John Middlekauff· Sep 10, 2025
Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. He is pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying he'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. He also sees Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.
“I would be stunned if one of those two guys doesn't win the MVP this year.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
6 checkable claims — 2 award picks, 2 mock draft picks, 1 draft bust call and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
5 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 0 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Draft Bust CallsCaleb WilliamsChicago BearsSep 10, 2025
Caleb Williams to disappoint at the next level
“if I was a betting man right now, I would say this is not gonna work. I don't think Caleb is good... you would put money on Caleb Williams not working out... worst case scenario, Kayleb Williams is a bust, which is a tough word to say when you draft a guy number one overall”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skillHow this was scored
- pick:
- 1
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- the pick returned what picks at that cost typically return
- skill:
- -194
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- best finish:
- QB5 in 2025
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- had to reach:
- QB9
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- seasons played:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- measured against:
- the 26 QBs taken within 16 picks of 1, across every draft we hold
- Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo BillsSep 10, 2025
Josh Allen to win MVP
“Josh all and Lamar Jackson are gonna continue to rack up MVPs. I would be stunned if one of those two guys doesn't win the MVP this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Award PicksLamar JacksonBaltimore RavensSep 10, 2025
Lamar Jackson to win MVP
“Josh all and Lamar Jackson are gonna continue to rack up MVPs. I would be stunned if one of those two guys doesn't win the MVP this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Mock Draft PicksJohn MateerSep 10, 2025
John Mateer to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)
“And John Mattier is going to be a first round pick.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- John Mateer
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- first round pick (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksJohn MateerSep 10, 2025
John Mateer to be picked “top fifteen to twenty pick” (picks 1–15)
“He will be in the Heisman mix, and he will be discussed as a top fifteen to twenty pick.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- John Mateer
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- top fifteen to twenty pick (picks 1–15)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Season Win TotalsChicago BearsSep 10, 2025
Chicago Bears to finish with ? wins
“Now, after watching that last night, like, yeah, six seven wins, that's what I feel like, that's gonna be your quarterback”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Baltimore RavensHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsMiss · 0Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.