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Ben McWilliams· Oct 4, 2026

Predicts both of Week 4's 'cat' games — Jaguars at Bengals and Lions at Panthers — produce at least 85 combined points, the highest-scoring games between cat teams in NFL history.

“I predict we are going to see some feline fireworks, as both the Jaguars-Bengals and Lions-Panthers games produce at least 85 combined points.”

published in writing · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 2 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 64.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Jacksonville Jaguars ? — Bengals ?

    “Week 4: "both the Jaguars-Bengals and Lions-Panthers games produce at least 85 combined points"”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 40.48+108.93 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    22-17
    skill:
    108.93
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    40.48
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    5
    weeks left when called:
    15
    naive home margin:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Detroit Lions ? — Panthers ?

    “Week 4: "both the Jaguars-Bengals and Lions-Panthers games produce at least 85 combined points"”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 88.1-161.21 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    26-32
    skill:
    −161.21
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    88.1
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    15
    naive home margin:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

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