Skip to main content

Darrion GraySep 24, 2026

Predicted the Saints beat the Raiders 27-17 at home.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Saints (podcast)Hear the original

45Close · out of 100
Raiders 35–27What happenedcalled Saints by 10 · lost by 8
32.07A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
45.24This callout of 100
+24.89Skillafter difficulty

What Darrion Gray said

Final score, I'm gonna go 27 to 17, Saints.
Our reading: New Orleans Saints 27 — Raiders 17
The episode
SAINTS SQUAD SHOW: Tyler Shough & Chris Olave Are Growing Into a Top 5 QB-WR Duo In the NFL
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidSep 24
  2. PlayedSep 27
  3. GradedSep 28

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 45.2 out of 100, against 32.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsNew Orleans Saints

    New Orleans Saints 27 — Raiders 17

    What happenedRaiders 35–27called Saints by 10 · lost by 8
    45.24Close · naive 32.07
    45.24this call32.07a naive guess13.17better than naive1.89difficulty+24.89skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Saints by 3.5, total 43.5 · this 27–17 calls a bigger Saints win (by 10) and more points (44).

    How this was scored
    score:
    35-27
    skill:
    24.89
    they picked:
    NO
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    45.24
    baseline:
    32.07
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    8
    weeks left when called:
    16
    naive home margin:
    0.47
    predicted margin:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Others on the same people

More score predictions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.