John Middlekauff· Nov 6, 2026
Middlekauff declared the AFC South over and the Jaguars the division champs, while listing several clubs he expects in the playoffs and pegging the Jets for a top-five draft slot. He also leaned Packers and Bears in Week 9 games, predicted roughly five or six wins for Washington, said Brandon Aiyuk is not coming back, and called Tyson Bagent's current deal the biggest he'll ever sign.
“I mean, this division's already over. They're the division champs.”
said on air or in an interview · 3 and Out with John Middlekauff (podcast) · read the original →
10 checkable claims — 4 playoff picks, 2 game outcome picks, 1 division winner, 1 season win total, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Packers at Patriots 25 calls
- Buccaneers at Bears 23 calls
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
- Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersNov 6, 2026
Green Bay Packers to beat Patriots
“I also kind of like the Packers in this spot... the Patriots, Drake Mays playing out of his mind. But, like, how many times can you throw to Pop Douglas?”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 45-27
- skill:
- 156
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
Closing line (Nov 8): Patriots by 3 · underdog pick, Packers 38%.
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsNov 6, 2026
Chicago Bears to beat Tampa
“Yeah, I mean, I think I like the Bears big in this game, but if you told me this game gets weird, I could see– it's going to be fascinating.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 24-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
Closing line (Nov 8): Bears by 6.5 · favorite pick, Bears 71%.
- Trade and Signing CallsBrandon AiyukNov 6, 2026
Brandon Aiyuk to move — “not coming back”
“No. I don't think there's coming back from saying what he said publicly over and over and over for months... So I don't think there's any returning.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksKansas City ChiefsNov 6, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“if you go Kansas City as a playoff team, Detroit's probably a playoff team”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksDetroit LionsNov 6, 2026
Detroit Lions to make the playoffs
“Detroit's probably a playoff team.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksDenver BroncosNov 6, 2026
Denver Broncos to make the playoffs
“Obviously, Denver's a playoff team.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Division WinnersJacksonville JaguarsNov 6, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division
“their division, I mean, the Colts and Titans are done, and the Texans just have too big of an uphill battle to climb. I mean, this division's already over. They're the division champs.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles RamsNov 6, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs
“The Rams will probably end up being a playoff team.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Season Win TotalsWashington CommandersNov 6, 2026
Washington Commanders to finish with 5–6 wins
“Commanders are a weird team. I think where the dust settles, they're probably five or six wins.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Team Draft Slot CallsNew York JetsNov 6, 2026
New York Jets to pick “top five” (picks 1–5)
“I mean, the Jets are going to be drafting in the top five.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Bill HuberGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersHit · 100Huber argues Green Bay has no excuses left and will beat New England in Foxborough, and expects Christian Watson to play despite his rib injury. He also sketches the projected interior offensive line, with John Williams at center and Laken Tomlinson at right guard.
- Pete PriscoScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersClose · 64Prisco gives score predictions for every Week 9 NFL game, picking the Bengals to rout the Falcons in Madrid, the Cowboys to rebound at Indianapolis, and the Jaguars to win in Baltimore without Lamar Jackson.
- Bryan DeArdoScore Predictions · Chicago BearsHit · 98DeArdo picks the Bears to beat the Buccaneers on Sunday night in a defensive game, predicting a 20-16 final score.
- Christian BooherRoster Spot Calls · Anthony LucasMiss · 0Booher previews the Lions' Week 9 trip to Miami, predicting Derrick Barnes takes over as the green-dot linebacker in Jack Campbell's absence, Juice Scruggs starts at center, and boldly forecasting Detroit's first defensive touchdown of the season on an Aidan Hutchinson strip-sack recovered and returned by Barnes.
- Derek BrownGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersHit · 100Brown picked the Bengals to beat the Falcons in Madrid, the Packers to win outright in New England and the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night. He was bullish on Jonah Coleman's rest-of-season value, expected Jonathan Taylor to play for the Colts, floated a Breece Hall trade, and did not expect DJ Reed to play in Week 9.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersHit · 100Parkins named the seven AFC teams he believes are already set as the playoff field, expects Chicago, Buffalo and Kansas City to win this week, took Green Bay over New England and Atlanta over Cincinnati outright, and kept Bills–Bears as his Super Bowl matchup with the Giants still winning the NFC East.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Minnesota VikingsMiss · 0Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.
- Dwaine BoardPlayoff Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Board argues the 49ers can still make the playoffs even if Trent Williams leaves, expects Williams to be brought back, and favors drafting a wide receiver at No. 27 over an offensive tackle.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Pittsburgh SteelersHit · 100Brockman argued the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Foxborough, meaning the Patriots will finish as the No. 1 seed, and called his shot that the Chargers beat Denver in Week 18. He also declared the Bears a team of destiny who will win the NFC, said the Steelers will end their playoff win drought, and that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.