Connor Rogers· Nov 6, 2026
Rogers picked straight-up winners in every Week 9 game, agreeing with Simms on all of them, and gave a 24-20 Bills score over the Vikings on Monday night.
“I think the Saints win and cover this game.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast) · read the original →
11 checkable claims — 11 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 11 have settled, averaging 90.9 out of 100, against 45.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Bengals at Falcons 20 calls
- Broncos at Panthers 19 calls
- Rams at Commanders 16 calls
- Giants at Eagles 14 calls
- Browns at Saints 16 calls
- Jets at Chiefs 20 calls
- Raiders at 49ers 12 calls
- Texans at Chargers 22 calls
- Packers at Patriots 25 calls
- Cardinals at Seahawks 50 calls
- Buccaneers at Bears 23 calls
11 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksNov 6, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to beat Cardinals
“I think the Seahawks definitely win this game. Yeah. It's a lower confidence that Arizona covers.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 3-17
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
Closing line (Nov 8): Seahawks by 8.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks about 4 in 5 (79%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsNov 6, 2026
New England Patriots to beat Green Bay
“I'm gonna take Green Bay with the cover and New England to win”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 45-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
Closing line (Nov 8): Patriots by 3 · favorite pick, Patriots 62%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansNov 6, 2026
Houston Texans to beat chargers
“I'm going right back to the Chargers... not to win Right. Because they just can't beat anybody. Yeah. But you're gonna have them cover.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 44-22
- skill:
- 156
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAC
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
Closing line (Nov 8): Texans by 5.5 · favorite pick, Texans about 2 in 3 (67%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
- Game Outcome PicksSan Francisco 49ersNov 6, 2026
San Francisco 49ers to beat Raiders
“The Niners win this game. They might even win it easily... can the Raiders just score enough to backdoor cover this?”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SF
- score:
- 17-38
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SF
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
Closing line (Nov 8): 49ers by 8.5 · favorite pick, 49ers about 3 in 4 (77%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsNov 6, 2026
Chicago Bears to beat Bucks
“My second point and why I'm taking the Bears to win and cover, the prime time Bears right now.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 24-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
Closing line (Nov 8): Bears by 6.5 · favorite pick, Bears 71%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosNov 6, 2026
Denver Broncos to beat Carolina
“But a field goal for Denver right now... I like Denver. Alright. Cover, win”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 26-21
- skill:
- 156
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CAR
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
Closing line (Nov 8): Broncos by 3 · favorite pick, Broncos 58%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
- Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsNov 6, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Jets
“I don't think the Jets win this game... Think the Chiefs will win.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 12-35
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
Closing line (Nov 8): Chiefs by 9.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 4 in 5 (80%).
- Game Outcome PicksNew Orleans SaintsNov 6, 2026
New Orleans Saints to beat Browns
“Yeah. I think the Saints win and cover this game.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NO
- score:
- 22-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NO
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NO
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
Closing line (Nov 8): Saints by 4.5 · favorite pick, Saints about 2 in 3 (66%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsNov 6, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to beat commanders
“I'm gonna take the commanders to cover. Alright. I don't think they'll win.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 20-13
- skill:
- 156
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- WAS
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
Closing line (Nov 8): Rams by 4.5 · favorite pick, Rams about 2 in 3 (66%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
- Game Outcome PicksNew York GiantsNov 6, 2026
New York Giants to beat Eagles
“I'm gonna take the Giants to win, but only by a field goal or less.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYG
- score:
- 19-11
- skill:
- 156
- they picked:
- NYG
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
Closing line (Nov 8): Giants by 3 · favorite pick, Giants 59%.
- Game Outcome PicksCincinnati BengalsNov 6, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Falcons
“I have the Bengals winning this game, but I don't have them covering the three points.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 34-17
- skill:
- 156
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ATL
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
Closing line (Nov 8): Bengals by 3 · favorite pick, Bengals 62%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
What others said about the same people
- John MiddlekauffDraft Bust Calls · Caleb WilliamsMiss · 0Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. He is pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying he'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. He also sees Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.
- Jeremy BrenerScore Predictions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Brener picked the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in Week 9 by a multi-score margin, giving a final score of 27-13, and expressed confidence Seattle would be fine with Drew Lock starting at quarterback.
- Albert BreerGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Breer picks the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in their Week 9 NFC West matchup.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Sullivan picks the Seahawks to win in Week 9.
- Dave RichardGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Richard picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals.
- John PluymGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Pluym picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Bill HuberGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersHit · 100Huber argues Green Bay has no excuses left and will beat New England in Foxborough, and expects Christian Watson to play despite his rib injury. He also sketches the projected interior offensive line, with John Williams at center and Laken Tomlinson at right guard.
- Derek BrownGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersHit · 100Brown picked the Bengals to beat the Falcons in Madrid, the Packers to win outright in New England and the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night. He was bullish on Jonah Coleman's rest-of-season value, expected Jonathan Taylor to play for the Colts, floated a Breece Hall trade, and did not expect DJ Reed to play in Week 9.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersHit · 100Parkins named the seven AFC teams he believes are already set as the playoff field, expects Chicago, Buffalo and Kansas City to win this week, took Green Bay over New England and Atlanta over Cincinnati outright, and kept Bills–Bears as his Super Bowl matchup with the Giants still winning the NFC East.
- Eric ManginiGame Outcome Picks · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 0Mangini picked New England to beat Green Bay by more than a field goal, flagged Tampa Bay as his upset alert over Chicago, expects Kansas City to handle the Jets, took Buffalo over Minnesota, backed Cincinnati over Atlanta in Madrid, and updated his Super Bowl to Rams–Bengals.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 0Wright argued the Jaguars are the AFC's most complete team, calling them the considerable favorite for the No. 1 seed and the only club essentially locked into the playoffs. He also picked Tampa Bay to upset Chicago, had Kansas City sweeping its next three games, liked New England over Green Bay by about a field goal, and updated his Super Bowl matchup to Chiefs–49ers.
- Donte JohnsonGame Outcome Picks · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 0The former NFL safety picked the Buccaneers to upset the Bears in their Week 9 matchup, arguing Todd Bowles' defense would frustrate Caleb Williams.