Saagar Enjeti· Nov 1, 2022

Arguing that the New York Times/Siena polls missed by roughly five points in the same states in 2020, he said he would bet on the Republican in each of the key Senate battlegrounds except possibly Arizona, and that if forced to bet on Senate control he would put his money on Republicans.

“I concur Look, I mean, if I had to bet, I'd put money on the Republicans.”

said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 4 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 1, 2022
“So when you consider that, I would probably be the Republican canon in every single one of these races, just except maybe Arizona.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raphael Warnock
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
runoff
they said:
Herschel Junior Walker
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2022
“if you look at Nevada, they had Biden up by six... which actually that means that Laxalt, if you factor in the same thing, would be winning... I would probably be the Republican canon in every single one of these races, just except maybe Arizona.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 1, 2022
“I concur Look, I mean, if I had to bet, I'd put money on the Republicans. That being said, been wrong.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2022
“So when you consider that, I would probably be the Republican canon in every single one of these races, just except maybe Arizona.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
John K. Fetterman
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mehmet Oz
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.