Matt Miller· Apr 22, 2026
Miller predicted the Jets take David Bailey second overall, that Jordan Tyson goes to the Giants at No. 5 as the first receiver off the board, that the Browns take an offensive lineman/trade back, and offered a wild prediction that Dallas trades up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese.
“I have Jordan Tyson to the Giants at five.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →
8 checkable claims — 5 mock draft picks, 1 position order call, 1 team draft slot call and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 87.6 out of 100, against 40.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyNew York JetsApr 22, 2026
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
“I think I think it goes David Bailey... I I have a feeling it will be David Bailey.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
- Mock Draft PicksJordyn TysonNew York GiantsApr 22, 2026
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 5
“I have Jordan Tyson to the Giants at five.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Jordyn Tyson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
- Position Order CallsJordyn TysonNew York GiantsApr 22, 2026
Jordyn Tyson to be 1st wide receiver off the board
“Who do you think the first receiver off the board is gonna be? ... I have Jordan Tyson to the Giants at five.”
Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 11.45+59.26 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 36 at random averages 11.45
- skill:
- 59.26
- player:
- Jordyn Tyson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 11.45
- position:
- wide receiver
- class size:
- 36
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 2
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseDallas CowboysApr 22, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
“Dallas trading up to three. For Reese?”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
- Team Draft Slot CallsDallas CowboysApr 22, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to pick at number 3
“Dallas trading up to three.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “Seven is the floor”
“Seven is the floor. I think it is. For Jeremiah Love.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsApr 22, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked “five to 10 is his range”
“he's probably starting the conversation at five, but probably five to 10 is his range”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Top Player ListsApr 22, 2026
“So Caleb Downs is my number three overall player.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Dallas CowboysHit · 100Rogers made his own Week 2 calls, taking the Packers, Eagles (by at least 10), Panthers (by at least a field goal), Cowboys (by at least six), Chargers, Chiefs and Rams to win. He also noted Baltimore was his Super Bowl pick and said it wouldn't shock him if Jacksonville hosted the AFC Championship Game.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Dallas CowboysHit · 83Simms went through every Week 2 game with predicted final scores, picking the Texans, Bears, Steelers (as an upset), Packers, Ravens, Eagles, Buccaneers, Panthers, Jaguars, Seahawks, Cowboys, 49ers, Chargers, Chiefs and Rams to win. He also reiterated that Denver was his preseason Super Bowl pick while predicting the Broncos would fall to 0-2.
- Phil SimmsGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsMiss · 0Phil Simms said the Giants can hang with and beat the Rams in their Monday night matchup, citing the Rams' sluggish showing in Australia and the Giants' offensive versatility.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New York GiantsHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Nate TiceScore Predictions · Dallas CowboysHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.