Lance Zierlein#11 of 87 NFL pundits · Apr 5, 2026
Zuerlein describes their mock draft 3.0: Carnell Tate to the Giants at No. 5, Sonny Styles falling to the Cowboys at No. 12, and Colton Hood to Dallas at No. 20. They also expect runs on linebackers from the late twenties to about pick 45, defensive tackles from the early-mid twenties into the 40s, and says Ahvion Terrell's 4.65 forty knocks them out of first-round contention. They call Kenyon Saddiq and Mansoor Delaine the safest picks for Dallas, and thinks Delaine's tape is top-four caliber, while Jeremiah Smith could be a generational, Megatron-type receiver.
Said on air, transcribed by us · DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)Hear the original
What Lance Zierlein said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI had him fall to the Cowboys. And I said, well, this is a no brainer.
- Where it was said
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)
- The episode
- Sonny Styles FALLS To Cowboys In Lance Zierlein's Latest Mock Draft
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidApr 5
- GradedOct 1
- 1Avieon Terrell to be picked “knock him out of first round contention” (picks 1–32)“Avion Terrell ran a four six five out of out of, Clemson, and that's, like, gonna knock him out of first round contention.”
- 2Sonny Styles to be picked at number 12“And I had him sit there, and I had him fall to the Cowboys. And I said, well, this is a no brainer.”
- 3Colton Hood to be picked at number 20“I ended up having Colton Hood there in that spot. And I had him there last time”
- 4Jermott McCoy to be picked at number 20“Jermott McCoy? Take. ... I'll take him at 20”
- 5Carnell Tate to be picked at number 5“I decided to go cardinal Tate there with the Giants ... at number five with the Giants”
- 6Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 12“Jeremiah Love? I may have 12. I'll take them.”
- 7Mansoor Delane to be picked “not gonna make it to 12”“Now he's not gonna make it to 12, but, you know, if cowboys get froggy and decide to jump, he's one of those guys to me that's a really, really safe pick.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avieon Terrell to be picked “knock him out of first round contention” (picks 1–32)1 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 48 | 50 | 50 | +31.62 | |
| Sonny Styles to be picked at number 122 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 7 | 80.52 | 50 | +31.62 | |
| Colton Hood to be picked at number 203 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 37 | 47.88 | 50 | +31.62 | |
| Jermott McCoy to be picked at number 204 | Mock Draft Picks | Went undrafted | 0 | 50 | +31.62 | |
| Carnell Tate to be picked at number 55 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 4 | 95.76 | 50 | +31.62 | |
| Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 126 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 3 | 67.71 | 50 | +31.62 | |
| Mansoor Delane to be picked “not gonna make it to 12”7 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| 7 calls · 2 hits · 3 close calls · 1 miss · 1 waiting | 57 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive7 checkable claims — 7 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
6 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 57 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksAvieon Terrell
Avieon Terrell to be picked “knock him out of first round contention” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 4850Close · naive 5081.62this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=31.62better than naive×1difficulty=+31.62skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.62
- player:
- Avieon Terrell
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 48
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 50
- predicted pick:
- knock him out of first round contention (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.62
2Mock Draft PicksSonny StylesDallas Cowboys
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 12
What happenedWent 7mocked at 1280.52Hit · naive 5081.62this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=31.62better than naive×1difficulty=+31.62skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.62
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.62
3Mock Draft PicksColton HoodDallas Cowboys
Colton Hood to be picked at number 20
What happenedWent 37mocked at 2047.88Close · naive 5081.62this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=31.62better than naive×1difficulty=+31.62skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.62
- player:
- Colton Hood
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 47.88
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 37
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 47.88
- predicted pick:
- 20
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.62
4Mock Draft PicksJermott McCoyDallas Cowboys
Jermott McCoy to be picked at number 20
What happenedWent undraftedmocked at 200Miss · naive 5081.62this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=31.62better than naive×1difficulty=+31.62skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.62
- player:
- Jermott McCoy
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- 20
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.62
5Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateNew York Giants
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 5
What happenedWent 4mocked at 595.76Hit · naive 5081.62this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=31.62better than naive×1difficulty=+31.62skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.62
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.62
6Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveDallas Cowboys
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 12
What happenedWent 3mocked at 1267.71Close · naive 5081.62this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=31.62better than naive×1difficulty=+31.62skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 31.62
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 67.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 67.71
- predicted pick:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 81.62
7Mock Draft PicksMansoor Delane
Mansoor Delane to be picked “not gonna make it to 12”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once
57naive 50
Who this take is about
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