Ross TuckerAug 1, 2023

Tucker ranks all 32 NFL offensive lines entering the 2023 season in tiers, with the Eagles first and the Titans last. They also expect Cam Jurgens to start at right guard for Philadelphia, Halapoulivaati Vaitai to start at right guard for Detroit, Riley Reiff at right tackle in New England, rookie Juice Scruggs at center in Houston, rookie Broderick Jones at left tackle in Pittsburgh, Darnell Wright at right tackle in Chicago, Bryce Young to start at QB in Carolina, Colton McKivitz at right tackle in San Francisco, John Michael Schmitz at center for the Giants, and Sam Cosmi moving to right guard in Washington. They also think the Chargers could be viewed as an elite line by year's end.

Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original

15 of 16calls landed15 hits · 1 close call · 2 waiting

94.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 16 calls

91.2A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

16 of 18Settled2 still waiting

2Waitingnot graded yet

What Ross Tucker said

I broke down all 32 offensive lines into five different categories to give you a better sense of where each team stacks up.

Ross Tucker, the lead quote

Where it was published: The 33rd Team
The piece: 2023 Preseason NFL Offensive Line Rankings: Who Lands in the Elite Tier?
The original: The copy as archived Nov 29, 2023
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.

SaidAug 1, 2023
GradedAug 5–18, 2026

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Waiting
Depth Chart Calls	15	0	2
Position Group Rankings	0	1	0
All	15	1	2

How each call scored

18 checkable claims — 17 depth chart calls and 1 position group ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 31 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

16 of 18 have settled so far, averaging 94.3 out of 100, against 91.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

1They said

1What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Depth Chart Calls15 hits · 2 waitingShow ▸

Sam Cosmi to be 1st on the depth chart
“I'm skeptical of Sam Cosmi's move to right guard”
Sam Cosmi Washington Commanders
No. 1called No. 1 · by offensive snaps
100Hit
100 − 83.33 naive = 16.67 × 2 difficulty = +33.33 skill
How this was scored
club:
WAS
skill:
33.33
player:
Sam Cosmi
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
83.33
position:
G
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Shaq Mason to be 1st on the depth chart
“they should get solid play out of Shaq Mason at right guard”
Shaq Mason Houston Texans
No. 1called No. 1 · by offensive snaps
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
club:
HOU
skill:
0
player:
Shaq Mason
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
G
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Evan Neal to be 1st on the depth chart
“the expectation is Evan Neal will make an Andrew Thomas–like improvement at right tackle”
Evan Neal New York Giants
No. 3called No. 1 · by offensive snaps
83.33Hit
83.33 − 91.67 naive = −8.34 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
NYG
skill:
−16.67
player:
Evan Neal
season:
2023
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
91.67
position:
T
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
3
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Darnell Wright to be 1st on the depth chart
“The additions of free agent Nate Davis and rookie right tackle Darnell Wright on the right side”
Darnell Wright Chicago Bears
No. 1called No. 1 · by special-teams snaps
100Hit
100 − 91.67 naive = 8.33 × 2 difficulty = +16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
CHI
skill:
16.67
player:
Darnell Wright
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
T
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
special-teams snaps
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Matthew Bergeron to be 1st on the depth chart
“Now, they add another bruiser in rookie left guard Matthew Bergeron to the mix.”
Matthew Bergeron Atlanta Falcons
No. 1called No. 1 · by special-teams snaps
100Hit
100 − 91.67 naive = 8.33 × 2 difficulty = +16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
ATL
skill:
16.67
player:
Matthew Bergeron
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
G
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
special-teams snaps
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Colton McKivitz to be 1st on the depth chart
“We will see how much of a downgrade it is going from McGlinchey to Colton McKivitz opposite the incredible Trent Williams.”
Colton McKivitz San Francisco 49ers
No. 1called No. 1 · by special-teams snaps
100Hit
100 − 66.67 naive = 33.33 × 2 difficulty = +66.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
SF
skill:
66.67
player:
Colton McKivitz
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
66.67
position:
T
naive slot:
5
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
special-teams snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Juice Scruggs to be 1st on the depth chart
“rookie second-round center Juice Scruggs will be counted next to last year's first-rounder, Kenyon Green”
Juice Scruggs Houston Texans
No. 2called No. 1 · by offensive snaps
91.67Hit
91.67 − 100 naive = −8.33 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
HOU
skill:
−16.67
player:
Juice Scruggs
season:
2023
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
100
position:
C
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Broderick Jones to be 1st on the depth chart
“the addition of Seumalo and rookie left tackle Broderick Jones”
Broderick Jones Pittsburgh Steelers
No. 2called No. 1 · by offensive snaps
91.67Hit
91.67 − 100 naive = −8.33 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
PIT
skill:
−16.67
player:
Broderick Jones
season:
2023
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
100
position:
T
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Jawaan Taylor to be 1st on the depth chart
“right tackle Jawaan Taylor should be an upgrade over Andrew Wylie”
Jawaan Taylor Kansas City Chiefs
No. 1called No. 1 · by offensive snaps
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
club:
KC
skill:
0
player:
Jawaan Taylor
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
T
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Jonah Williams to be 1st on the depth chart
“the question is how well will former left tackle Jonah Williams fare on the right side?”
Jonah Williams Cincinnati Bengals
No. 1called No. 1 · by defensive snaps
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
club:
LAR
skill:
0
player:
Jonah Williams
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
DE
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
defensive snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
John Michael Schmitz to be 1st on the depth chart
“Rookie John Michael Schmitz should be an upgrade at center”
John Michael Schmitz New York Giants
No. 1called No. 1 · by offensive snaps
100Hit
100 − 91.67 naive = 8.33 × 2 difficulty = +16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
NYG
skill:
16.67
player:
John Michael Schmitz
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
C
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Jamaree Salyer to be 1st on the depth chart
“Getting Rashawn Slater back at left tackle allows them to move Jamaree Salyer inside.”
Jamaree Salyer Los Angeles Chargers
No. 1called No. 1 · by offensive snaps
100Hit
100 − 83.33 naive = 16.67 × 2 difficulty = +33.33 skill
How this was scored
club:
LAC
skill:
33.33
player:
Jamaree Salyer
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
83.33
position:
G
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Cam Jurgens to be 1st on the depth chart
“presumptive starter Cam Jurgens has only ever played center before, so that is something to watch”
Cam Jurgens Philadelphia Eagles
No. 2called No. 1 · by offensive snaps
91.67Hit
91.67 − 100 naive = −8.33 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
PHI
skill:
−16.67
player:
Cam Jurgens
season:
2023
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
100
position:
G
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Donovan Smith to be 1st on the depth chart
“The real question will be how much of a drop-off they see at left tackle from Orlando Brown Jr. to Donovan Smith.”
Donovan Smith Kansas City Chiefs
No. 2called No. 1 · by offensive snaps
91.67Hit
91.67 − 91.67 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
club:
KC
skill:
0
player:
Donovan Smith
season:
2023
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
91.67
position:
T
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
offensive snaps
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Bryce Young to be 1st on the depth chart
“as it protects rookie starting quarterback Bryce Young”
Bryce Young Carolina Panthers
No. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards
100Hit
100 − 91.67 naive = 8.33 × 2 difficulty = +16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
CAR
skill:
16.67
player:
Bryce Young
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Riley Reiff to be 1st on the depth chart
“The hope this year is that the Patriots can get good enough play out of Riley Reiff at right tackle”
Riley Reiff New England Patriots
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Halapoulivaati Vaitai to be 1st on the depth chart
“Getting Halapoulivaati Vaitai back at right guard between studs Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell should help this unit be even better.”
Halapoulivaati Vaitai Detroit Lions
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Position Group Rankings1 close callShow ▸

“I broke down all 32 offensive lines into five different categories... 1. Philadelphia Eagles ... 32. Tennessee Titans”
59.24Close
59.24 − 75.38 naive = −16.14 × 2 difficulty = −32.29 skill
How this was scored
best:
BUF
unit:
offensive_line
skill:
−32.29
method:
spearman
season:
2023
accuracy:
59.24
baseline:
75.38
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
32
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?

Others on the same people

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Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.
Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.
Parker Hurley · Roster Spot Calls · Khalid Kareem · Miss 0
Hurley predicts the 49ers will release Khalil Kareem when Nate Hobbs is activated and cut Brandin Cooks when C.J. West returns, while arguing Sebastian Valdez won't be the one let go and no cornerback will be cut.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.
Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.

More depth chart calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Jeremy Brener · Depth Chart Calls · Drew Lock · Hit 100
Brener picked the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in Week 9 by a multi-score margin, giving a final score of 27-13, and expressed confidence Seattle would be fine with Drew Lock starting at quarterback.
Jeremy Brener · Depth Chart Calls · Jalen Milroe · Miss 0
Brener suggests Seattle may turn to rookie-contract quarterback Jalen Milroe for their first career start in Week 9 against the Cardinals, with Sam Darnold ruled out and Drew Lock dealing with an elbow injury.
Michael Moore · Depth Chart Calls · Shedeur Sanders · Hit 100
In a Week 9 injury roundup, Moore forecast which banged-up fantasy contributors would play or sit: Deshaun Watson, Garrett Wilson, David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, TreVeyon Henderson and Terrance Ferguson are expected out, while Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley, Michael Wilson, Christian Watson and Emeka Egbuka should play. They also expect Shedeur Sanders and Drew Lock to start at quarterback.
Zachary Pereles · Depth Chart Calls · Shedeur Sanders · Hit 100
Pereles writes that if Deshaun Watson can't clear concussion protocol in time, the Browns would likely turn to second-year quarterback Shedeur Sanders to start Week 9 against the Saints.
Nic Bodiford · Depth Chart Calls · Joe Fagnano · Hit 100
Previewing Week 9 running game matchups, Bodiford expects Jacksonville to win lopsidedly over a depleted Baltimore team, with Bhayshul Tuten sitting out and Chris Rodriguez taking over as lead back, while Joe Fagnano starts at quarterback for the Ravens. They also view Broncos rookie Jonah Coleman as an RB2 going forward.
Garrett Podell · Depth Chart Calls · Carson Beck · Miss 0
Podell argues the Cardinals have maxed out with Jacoby Brissett and that rookie Carson Beck should be ramped up to replace them as starter, targeting Week 8 at Dallas for Beck's regular-season debut.