Ross Tucker· Aug 1, 2023
Tucker ranks all 32 NFL offensive lines entering the 2023 season in tiers, with the Eagles first and the Titans last. He also expects Cam Jurgens to start at right guard for Philadelphia, Halapoulivaati Vaitai to start at right guard for Detroit, Riley Reiff at right tackle in New England, rookie Juice Scruggs at center in Houston, rookie Broderick Jones at left tackle in Pittsburgh, Darnell Wright at right tackle in Chicago, Bryce Young to start at QB in Carolina, Colton McKivitz at right tackle in San Francisco, John Michael Schmitz at center for the Giants, and Sam Cosmi moving to right guard in Washington. He also thinks the Chargers could be viewed as an elite line by year's end.
“I broke down all 32 offensive lines into five different categories to give you a better sense of where each team stacks up.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Nov 29, 2023) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
18 checkable claims — 17 depth chart calls and 1 position group ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 31 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
16 of 18 have settled so far, averaging 94.3 out of 100, against 91.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- Sam Cosmi
- Washington Commanders
- Shaq Mason
- Houston Texans
- Evan Neal
- New York Giants
- Darnell Wright
- Chicago Bears
- Matthew Bergeron
- Atlanta Falcons
- Colton McKivitz
- San Francisco 49ers
- Juice Scruggs
- Broderick Jones
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Jawaan Taylor
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Jonah Williams
- Cincinnati Bengals
- John Michael Schmitz
- Jamaree Salyer
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Cam Jurgens
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Donovan Smith
- Bryce Young
- Carolina Panthers
- Halapoulivaati Vaitai
- Detroit Lions
- Riley Reiff
- New England Patriots
18 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Sam Cosmi to be 1st on the depth chart
“I'm skeptical of Sam Cosmi's move to right guard”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 83.33+33.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- WAS
- skill:
- 33.33
- player:
- Sam Cosmi
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- G
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- offensive snaps
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsShaq MasonHouston TexansAug 1, 2023
Shaq Mason to be 1st on the depth chart
“they should get solid play out of Shaq Mason at right guard”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- HOU
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Shaq Mason
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- G
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- offensive snaps
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsEvan NealNew York GiantsAug 1, 2023
Evan Neal to be 1st on the depth chart
“the expectation is Evan Neal will make an Andrew Thomas–like improvement at right tackle”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Evan Neal
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- T
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- offensive snaps
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsDarnell WrightChicago BearsAug 1, 2023
Darnell Wright to be 1st on the depth chart
“The additions of free agent Nate Davis and rookie right tackle Darnell Wright on the right side”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CHI
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Darnell Wright
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- T
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- special-teams snaps
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Matthew Bergeron to be 1st on the depth chart
“Now, they add another bruiser in rookie left guard Matthew Bergeron to the mix.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- ATL
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Matthew Bergeron
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- G
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- special-teams snaps
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Colton McKivitz to be 1st on the depth chart
“We will see how much of a downgrade it is going from McGlinchey to Colton McKivitz opposite the incredible Trent Williams.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 66.67+66.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 66.67
- player:
- Colton McKivitz
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 66.67
- position:
- T
- naive slot:
- 5
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- special-teams snaps
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsJuice ScruggsHouston TexansAug 1, 2023
Juice Scruggs to be 1st on the depth chart
“rookie second-round center Juice Scruggs will be counted next to last year's first-rounder, Kenyon Green”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- HOU
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Juice Scruggs
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- C
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- offensive snaps
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Broderick Jones to be 1st on the depth chart
“the addition of Seumalo and rookie left tackle Broderick Jones”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- PIT
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Broderick Jones
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- T
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- offensive snaps
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Jawaan Taylor to be 1st on the depth chart
“right tackle Jawaan Taylor should be an upgrade over Andrew Wylie”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- KC
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jawaan Taylor
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- T
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- offensive snaps
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Jonah Williams to be 1st on the depth chart
“the question is how well will former left tackle Jonah Williams fare on the right side?”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LAR
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jonah Williams
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- DE
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- defensive snaps
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
John Michael Schmitz to be 1st on the depth chart
“Rookie John Michael Schmitz should be an upgrade at center”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- John Michael Schmitz
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- C
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- offensive snaps
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Jamaree Salyer to be 1st on the depth chart
“Getting Rashawn Slater back at left tackle allows them to move Jamaree Salyer inside.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 83.33+33.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LAC
- skill:
- 33.33
- player:
- Jamaree Salyer
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- G
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- offensive snaps
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Cam Jurgens to be 1st on the depth chart
“presumptive starter Cam Jurgens has only ever played center before, so that is something to watch”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- PHI
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Cam Jurgens
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- G
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- offensive snaps
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Donovan Smith to be 1st on the depth chart
“The real question will be how much of a drop-off they see at left tackle from Orlando Brown Jr. to Donovan Smith.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- KC
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Donovan Smith
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- T
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- offensive snaps
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Position Group RankingsAug 1, 2023
“I broke down all 32 offensive lines into five different categories... 1. Philadelphia Eagles ... 32. Tennessee Titans”
Close · 59Scored 59.24a naive guess scored 75.38-32.29 skillHow this was scored
- best:
- BUF
- unit:
- offensive_line
- skill:
- -32.29
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 59.24
- baseline:
- 75.38
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Bryce Young to be 1st on the depth chart
“as it protects rookie starting quarterback Bryce Young”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CAR
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Bryce Young
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Halapoulivaati Vaitai to be 1st on the depth chart
“Getting Halapoulivaati Vaitai back at right guard between studs Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell should help this unit be even better.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Riley Reiff to be 1st on the depth chart
“The hope this year is that the Patriots can get good enough play out of Riley Reiff at right tackle”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Jonah ColemanMiss · 0In his Week 3 waiver column, Fitzmaurice makes several depth-chart calls around injuries: Jonah Coleman leading Denver's backfield, Marcus Mariota taking over in Washington, Michael Penix Jr. starting once healthy, and Malik Washington serving as Miami's top receiver, plus availability expectations for Detroit's injured safeties.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Aaron JonesHit · 100In previewing the 10 most intriguing fantasy performers of Week 2, Fitzmaurice expects Atlanta's quarterback problems to persist with Tua Tagovailoa unlikely to play and Michael Penix Jr. not ready to return, flags Falcons slot corner Billy Bowman Jr. as a possible Week 2 returnee, and describes Aaron Jones as Minnesota's lead back and Kaelon Black as the clear backup to Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco.
- Matt SeveranceDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The CBS Sports preview backs Tampa Bay to beat Cleveland in the Bucs' Week 2 home opener, and states that Deshaun Watson — not Shedeur Sanders — will be Cleveland's starting quarterback in Week 2.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano reports Watson will start Week 2 at Tampa Bay and suggests there's little reason to expect improvement, raising the possibility Watson's five-year contract never yields more than single-digit wins.
- Bradley LockerDepth Chart Calls · Carson WentzHit · 100PFF's unsigned adjusted power rankings after Week 1 of the 2026 season place the Bills first, the Rams second and the Dolphins last, with notes on quarterback situations in Seattle, Minnesota and Cleveland.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Rashod BatemanMiss · 0In his Week 2 waiver wire column, Fitzmaurice recommends a slate of pickups he expects to outperform their current rostership (Kaelon Black, Deebo Samuel, Tyler Shough, Geno Smith and others), lays out several depth-chart expectations (Black as the 49ers' No. 2 back, Shedeur Sanders eventually taking over in Cleveland, Penix returning for Atlanta), and flags Fool's Gold/drop candidates such as Mike Gesicki, Kendrick Bourne and Rashid Shaheed.