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Gennaro Filice· Oct 16, 2026

The lone NFL.com pick for Tennessee, projecting a low-scoring 14-13 Titans upset built on their defensive front containing Jonathan Taylor.

“Is it that hard to imagine the Titans containing Jonathan Taylor, getting just enough offense from Cam Ward and eking out a low-wattage win?”

published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 88.1 out of 100, against 35.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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1 checkable claim in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Tennessee Titans 14 — Colts 13

    “Gennaro Filice: Titans 14, Colts 13”

    Hit · 88Scored 88.1a naive guess scored 35.71+90.1 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    26-20
    skill:
    90.1
    they picked:
    TEN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    88.1
    baseline:
    35.71
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    13
    naive home margin:
    0
    predicted margin:
    1

    Closing line (Oct 18): Colts by 6.5, total 43.5 · this 14–13 calls a Titans win (by 1; the line gave the Titans 28%) and fewer points (27).

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