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Tyler Sullivan· Oct 15, 2026

Sullivan floats Week 6 outcomes he wouldn't be shocked by: MarShawn Lloyd running for 100 yards against Dallas, the Giants beating the Saints while the Cowboys and Eagles both lose to grow New York's NFC East lead to 2.5 games, Tennessee finally winning against the Colts, and Pittsburgh losing in Tampa Bay.

“And yet, it wouldn't surprise us if he went off in Week 6 to the tune of 100 yards on the ground.”

published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersOct 15, 2026

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Steelers

    “Steelers score less than 20 points in loss to Bucs ... Those factors put Pittsburgh firmly on upset alert”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    PIT
    score:
    26-19
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    TB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    TB
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13

    Closing line (Oct 18): Steelers by 2.5 · underdog pick, Buccaneers 44%.

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  • Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersOct 15, 2026

    Green Bay Packers to beat Cowboys

    “Dallas is heading into Lambeau Field as an underdog against the Packers ... by the end of the weekend, we could see both the Cowboys and Eagles dropping to 2-4”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    GB
    score:
    13-23
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    GB
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13

    Closing line (Oct 18): Cowboys by 1.5 · a toss-up, Cowboys 51%, Packers 49%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksCarolina PanthersOct 15, 2026

    Carolina Panthers to beat Eagles

    “the Eagles are coming back from London and hosting a Panthers team that was just on the bye ... we could see both the Cowboys and Eagles dropping to 2-4”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+172 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    CAR
    score:
    25-14
    skill:
    172
    they picked:
    CAR
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13

    Closing line (Oct 18): Panthers by 3 · favorite pick, Panthers 59%.

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  • Game Outcome PicksNew York GiantsOct 15, 2026

    New York Giants to beat Saints

    “if New York can take care of business against New Orleans, it'd rather remarkably be 4-1-1 and have a growing lead in the division”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NO
    score:
    34-27
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    NYG
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    NYG
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13

    Closing line (Oct 18): a toss-up, about even (Saints 50%, Giants 50%).

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  • Game Outcome PicksTennessee TitansOct 15, 2026

    Tennessee Titans to beat Colts

    “it won't shock me if Tennessee finally gets into the win column this weekend ... it's more of a play against their opponent, the Indianapolis Colts”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+172 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    TEN
    score:
    26-20
    skill:
    172
    they picked:
    TEN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    IND
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13

    Closing line (Oct 18): Colts by 6.5 · underdog pick, Titans 28%.

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