Cynthia Frelund#45 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 23, 2025
Freeland picked the Chiefs to beat Washington by a big margin, the Colts to blow out the Titans by more than two touchdowns, and Tampa Bay to rebound and win in New Orleans. They also like the Ravens to win their division and had the Patriots winning.
Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original
What Cynthia Frelund said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think that the Chiefs win by a big margin
- Where it was said
- Around the NFL (podcast)
- The episode
- Week 8 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund
- The original
- Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidOct 23, 2025
- GradedAug 7–17, 2026
- 1Baltimore Ravens to win the division“For the futures market. I think them winning the division is a very smart, fun one situation to be in.”
- 2Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat New Orleans“I think Tampa Bay rebounds in New Orleans”
- 3Indianapolis Colts to beat Tennessee“I just think the Cults role... It's just really hard to imagine a scenario where Tennessee can really keep it close.”
- 4Tez Johnson to be 1st on the depth chart“the fact that Megg Buka and Tes Johnson will be the two starting outside wide receivers”
- 5Emeka Egbuka to be 1st on the depth chart“the fact that Megg Buka and Tes Johnson will be the two starting outside wide receivers”
- 6New England Patriots to beat Browns“Plus I have the Patriots winning.”
- 7Green Bay Packers to beat Pittsburgh“I have green Bay winning this one... I just think that Green Bay wins this one.”
- 8Kansas City Chiefs to beat Commanders“Monday Night Football. I think that the Chiefs win by a big margin”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens to win the division1 | Division Winners | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat New Orleans2 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 0 | +161 | |
| Indianapolis Colts to beat Tennessee3 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Tez Johnson to be 1st on the depth chart4 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 5 | 66.67 | 75 | −13.42 | |
| Emeka Egbuka to be 1st on the depth chart5 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 91.67 | +13.42 | |
| New England Patriots to beat Browns6 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Green Bay Packers to beat Pittsburgh7 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 0 | +161 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs to beat Commanders8 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 8 calls · 6 hits · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled | 83.3 | 58.3 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive8 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks, 2 depth chart calls and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 83.3 out of 100, against 58.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Division WinnersBaltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.61difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.61
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 11
- won the division:
- no
2Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat New Orleans
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.61difficulty=+161skillClosing line (Oct 26): Buccaneers by 4.5 · favorite pick, Buccaneers about 2 in 3 (66%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- TB
- score:
- 23-3
- skill:
- 161
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NO
- difficulty:
- 1.61
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 11
3Game Outcome PicksIndianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts to beat Tennessee
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.61difficulty=0skillClosing line (Oct 26): Colts by 15.5 · favorite pick, Colts over 9 in 10.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- IND
- score:
- 14-38
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 1.61
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 11
4Depth Chart CallsTez JohnsonTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tez Johnson to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 5called No. 1 · by receptions66.67Close · naive 7566.67this call−75a naive guess=−8.33worse than naive×1.61difficulty=−13.42skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- TB
- skill:
- −13.42
- player:
- Tez Johnson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 66.67
- baseline:
- 75
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1.61
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 11
5Depth Chart CallsEmeka EgbukaTampa Bay Buccaneers
Emeka Egbuka to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by receptions100Hit · naive 91.67100this call−91.67a naive guess=8.33better than naive×1.61difficulty=+13.42skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- TB
- skill:
- 13.42
- player:
- Emeka Egbuka
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1.61
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 11
6Game Outcome PicksNew England Patriots
New England Patriots to beat Browns
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.61difficulty=0skillClosing line (Oct 26): Patriots by 7 · favorite pick, Patriots about 3 in 4 (76%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 13-32
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1.61
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 11
7Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to beat Pittsburgh
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.61difficulty=+161skillClosing line (Oct 26): Packers by 3 · favorite pick, Packers 58%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 35-25
- skill:
- 161
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1.61
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 11
8Game Outcome PicksKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Commanders
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.61difficulty=0skillClosing line (Oct 27): Chiefs by 10.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 5 in 6 (84%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 7-28
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1.61
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 11
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 8 settled calls, each counted once
83.3naive 58.3
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.