Mike Murphy· Nov 2, 2022

Murphy argues the national environment overwhelms individual campaigns and calls a string of races for Republicans: Fetterman falling short in Pennsylvania, Herschel Walker taking the Georgia Senate seat, Adam Laxalt winning Nevada, Kari Lake winning the Arizona governorship, and Brian Kemp holding the Georgia governorship.

“You put a gun to my head, I predict that Herschel Walker's gonna win that seat.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Hacks On Tap · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 5 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 20 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“I'm I'm calling it for lack salt simply because I'm old.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“I do think Carrie Lake is gonna win, and so now we got a lady Trump”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-az
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Katie Hobbs
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kari Lake
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“Pennsylvania is the Democratic party's insurance policy ... So maybe he can pull it off, but but I'm I'm betting they're not gonna collect on that policy now.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
John K. Fetterman
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mehmet Oz
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“you put a gun to my head, I predict that Herschel Walker's gonna win that seat”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raphael Warnock
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
runoff
they said:
Herschel Junior Walker
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“I think Kemp's gonna win, but I think that race is gonna be...”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Brian Kemp
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Georgia gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Brian Kemp
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.