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Writes at Hacks On Tap
Is Mike Murphy accurate? Across 4 graded calls in 3 articles, Mike Murphy scores 0% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 0, which means their calls were no better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“Oh, I think she's gonna win. I will predict it with low to medium confidence now. I've gone from no confidence to low to medium.”
“And my gut is Trump has a ceiling, and it'll break to her... So if you... I had to bet, I'm to the point where I bet on her... It's the electoral college, of course. Yeah. But but only by a whisker.”
“I think she's definitely gonna win the popular vote.”
“So a week ago, I said I thought the election held today was Trump... But my gut now is that she's gear shift. And if you put a gun to my head and I couldn't wiggle away or get you to shoot Axelrod instead, I would predict her now.”