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Lance MooreSep 24, 2026

Called for a Saints victory over the Raiders by a score of 27-20.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Saints (podcast)Hear the original

48Close · out of 100
Raiders 35–27What happenedcalled Saints by 7 · lost by 8
32.07A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
47.62This callout of 100
+29.39Skillafter difficulty

What Lance Moore said

I'm gonna go first and foremost, Saints 27, Raiders 20, so Saints dub.
Our reading: New Orleans Saints 27 — Raiders 20
The episode
SAINTS SQUAD SHOW: Tyler Shough & Chris Olave Are Growing Into a Top 5 QB-WR Duo In the NFL
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidSep 24
  2. PlayedSep 27
  3. GradedSep 28

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 47.6 out of 100, against 32.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsNew Orleans Saints

    New Orleans Saints 27 — Raiders 20

    What happenedRaiders 35–27called Saints by 7 · lost by 8
    47.62Close · naive 32.07
    47.62this call32.07a naive guess15.55better than naive1.89difficulty+29.39skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Saints by 3.5, total 43.5 · this 27–20 calls a bigger Saints win (by 7) and more points (47).

    How this was scored
    score:
    35-27
    skill:
    29.39
    they picked:
    NO
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    47.62
    baseline:
    32.07
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    8
    weeks left when called:
    16
    naive home margin:
    0.47
    predicted margin:
    7
    Think this is wrong?

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