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Lance Zierlein#11 of 87 NFL pundits · Feb 6, 2026

Lance leans to Seattle winning the Super Bowl, and by a large margin, saying they feel fairly strong about that side even though the public backing isn't with them.

Said on air, transcribed by us · John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Game Outcome PicksThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
#11Lance Zierlein’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Lance Zierlein said

I feel like Seattle has a chance to really win this one big
Our reading: Seattle Seahawks to beat Patriots
The episode
02/06 Hour 3: Guest Five Star's Super Bowl Picks + News of the weird
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidFeb 6
  2. GradedAug 13

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks to beat Patriots

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill

    Closing line (Feb 8): Seahawks by 4.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks about 2 in 3 (68%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    29-13
    skill:
    100
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

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