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Marcus Mosher· Oct 15, 2024

Mosher ranks all 32 NFL teams heading into Week 7, with the Chiefs first and the Patriots last, and adds that the Texans could wrap up the AFC South by Thanksgiving, the Steelers should make the playoffs, the Cardinals are not a playoff team, and Mason Rudolph will eventually replace Will Levis as the Titans' starter.

“There aren’t three teams in the NFL who are worse than the Jaguars right now.”

published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Oct 22, 2024) →

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.

4 checkable claims — 1 depth chart call, 1 division winner, 1 playoff pick and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 4 have settled, averaging 95.3 out of 100, against 91.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Division WinnersHouston TexansOct 15, 2024

    Houston Texans to win the division

    “The Texans already have a massive lead in the AFC South, and they could have the division wrapped up by Thanksgiving.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    HOU
    difficulty:
    1.67
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    12
    won the division:
    yes

    Think this is wrong?

  • Depth Chart CallsMason RudolphTennessee TitansOct 15, 2024

    Mason Rudolph to be 1st on the depth chart

    “It feels like it’s only a matter of time before Mason Rudolph replaces him in the starting lineup.”

    Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-13.92 skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    TEN
    skill:
    -13.92
    player:
    Mason Rudolph
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    91.67
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    QB
    naive slot:
    2
    actual slot:
    2
    difficulty:
    1.67
    measured by:
    passing yards
    the naive guess:
    where he sat last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted slot:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    12

    Think this is wrong?

  • Power RankingsOct 15, 2024

    “Here is our full set of power rankings heading into Week 7: 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. New England Patriots”

    Hit · 90Scored 89.7a naive guess scored 67.38+37.28 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    37.28
    method:
    spearman
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    89.7
    baseline:
    67.38
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    teams ranked:
    32
    weeks left when called:
    12

    Think this is wrong?

  • Playoff PicksPittsburgh SteelersOct 15, 2024

    Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs

    “Pittsburgh isn’t a great team, but it has a clear identity and should still wind up being a playoff team.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    PIT
    skill:
    0
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive guess said:
    yes
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    made the playoffs:
    yes
    weeks left when called:
    12

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More depth chart calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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