LaVar ArringtonSep 12, 2025

Arrington rejects the Raiders hype ("putting makeup on a pig") and lays out Washington's upcoming slate as winnable, saying the Commanders should beat the Raiders, Falcons and Bears. For Week 2 they take the Saints on the money line over the 49ers, the Cowboys over the Giants, and the Chiefs on the money line against the Eagles.

Said on air or in an interview · 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 3calls landed1 hit · 2 misses · all settled

33.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

66.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

3 of 3Settlednone still waiting

0Waitingnot graded yet

What LaVar Arrington said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

So they should beat the Raiders, they should beat the Falcons.

LaVar Arrington, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)
The episode: Hour 3: Jonas & LaVar – Pick Against the Spread
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidSep 12, 2025
GradedAug 7, 2026

1Washington Commanders to beat Falcons“So they should beat the Raiders, they should beat the Falcons.”
2Washington Commanders to beat Raiders“So they should beat the Raiders, they should beat the Falcons.”
3Washington Commanders to beat Bears“Yeah, I mean, and they should beat the Bears... they should be able to beat them.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Washington Commanders to beat Falcons¹	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	100	−194
Washington Commanders to beat Raiders²	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	100	0
Washington Commanders to beat Bears³	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	0	0
3 calls · 1 hit · 2 misses · all settled			33.3	66.7

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders to beat Falcons
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.94difficulty−194skill
How this was scored
won:
ATL
score:
27-34
skill:
−194
they picked:
WAS
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
ATL
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders to beat Raiders
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill
How this was scored
won:
WAS
score:
24-41
skill:
0
they picked:
WAS
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
WAS
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this is wrong?
3Game Outcome Picks Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders to beat Bears
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill
How this was scored
won:
CHI
score:
25-24
skill:
0
they picked:
WAS
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
WAS
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
17
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
33.3naive 66.7