Ben Shapiro· Oct 14, 2026
Running the Senate map race by race, Shapiro predicts Republicans lose North Carolina and Ohio but flip Michigan with Mike Rogers, hold Texas with Ken Paxton, Maine with Susan Collins, plus Iowa and Alaska — a net loss of one seat and a retained Senate majority, alongside a 15-to-20-seat House loss.
“I think we end up losing 15, 20 seats in the house. I think we end up maintaining the senate.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Ben Shapiro Show · read the original →
10 checkable claims — 7 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 14, 2026
“I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that that El Sayed loses that seat. I I I think that Rogers is gonna win that seat.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsOct 14, 2026
“I think the Republicans probably end up netting... Net losing one seat.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 14, 2026
“I would say that we're we're certainly gonna lose North Carolina. Right? North Carolina's gone.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 14, 2026
“I think we're gonna retain the seat in Alaska.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 14, 2026
“I think in the end, the Texans will come to their senses, and I would be a little surprised if Salarico ends up winning that race”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 14, 2026
“I think that we have an uphill run-in Ohio... So that one, I think, is very rough race. ... which means that right now what you're talking about is, you know, two losses.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 14, 2026
“I think that we're gonna retain the seat in Iowa.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Control of CongressOct 14, 2026
“And that means that they maintain their majority in the senate.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsOct 14, 2026
“I think we end up losing 15, 20 seats in the house.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 14, 2026
“I think Collins is gonna win in men because she's a pro.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.