Jesse HolleyJan 16, 2026

Jesse picked the 49ers to beat Seattle (expecting Sam Darnold to revert to form), the Texans over New England, and the Rams over the Bears. They also called Oregon's tight end a first-round player and ranked the Giants' new head coach as the best in the NFC East ahead of Quinn and Schottenheimer.

Said on air, transcribed by us · DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 5calls landed2 hits · 3 misses · all settled

45Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5 of 5Settlednone still waiting

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Jesse Holley said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

And I think that's going to help the niners.

Jesse Holley, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)
The episode: Cowboys Mock Draft Roundup: Who Is the Best Pick at No. 12? | DLLS Cowboys Podcast
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidJan 16
GradedAug 14–17

1San Francisco 49ers to beat Seattle“the clock is going to strike twelve... he's going to do what he normally does in the playoffs... And I think that's going to help the niners. They're gonna capitalize on that defensively.”
2Head Coach Rankings“Best head coach in the NFC East. He is right now. Quinn second, Shadi third.”
3Houston Texans to beat Patriots“I cannot believe you sold out Drake May... That's how you know I'm objective... We both took Texans.”
4Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “first round player” (picks 1–32)“I watched Oregon's tight end last night. He's a first round player.”
5Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears“I'll take Stafford over there. And and for all those who are saying, the weather, the weather, the weather... They'll be fine.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
San Francisco 49ers to beat Seattle¹	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	100	−100
“Best head coach in the NFC East. He is right now. Quinn second,…”²	Head Coach Rankings	—	25	0	+25
Houston Texans to beat Patriots³	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	100	−100
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “first round player” (picks 1–32)⁴	Mock Draft Picks	Went 16	100	50	—
Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears⁵	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	0	+100
5 calls · 2 hits · 3 misses · all settled			45	50

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 1 head coach ranking and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 45 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers to beat Seattle
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
Closing line (Jan 17): Seahawks by 6.5 · underdog pick, 49ers 28%.
How this was scored
won:
SEA
score:
6-41
skill:
−100
they picked:
SF
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
SEA
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
2Head Coach Rankings
“Best head coach in the NFC East. He is right now. Quinn second, Shadi third.”
VerdictMiss
25Miss · naive 0
25this call0a naive guess25better than naive1difficulty+25skill
How this was scored
best:
Mike Vrabel
skill:
25
method:
spearman
season:
2025
accuracy:
25
baseline:
0
settled by:
wins above the prior-season baseline
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
coaches ranked:
3
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
3Game Outcome Picks Houston Texans
Houston Texans to beat Patriots
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
Closing line (Jan 18): Patriots by 3 · underdog pick, Texans 38%.
How this was scored
won:
NE
score:
16-28
skill:
−100
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
NE
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
4Mock Draft Picks Kenyon Sadiq
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “first round player” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 16
100Hit · naive 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Kenyon Sadiq
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
16
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
first round player (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
5Game Outcome Picks Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
Closing line (Jan 18): Rams by 3.5 · favorite pick, Rams about 2 in 3 (64%).
How this was scored
won:
LAR
score:
20-17
skill:
100
they picked:
LAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
CHI
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
45naive 50