Jesse Holley· Jan 16, 2026
Jesse picked the 49ers to beat Seattle (expecting Sam Darnold to revert to form), the Texans over New England, and the Rams over the Bears. He also called Oregon's tight end a first-round player and ranked the Giants' new head coach as the best in the NFC East ahead of Quinn and Schottenheimer.
“And I think that's going to help the niners.”
said on air, transcribed by us · DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 1 head coach ranking and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 45 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksSan Francisco 49ersJan 16, 2026
San Francisco 49ers to beat Seattle
“the clock is going to strike twelve... he's going to do what he normally does in the playoffs... And I think that's going to help the niners. They're gonna capitalize on that defensively.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 6-41
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- SF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Head Coach RankingsJan 16, 2026
“Best head coach in the NFC East. He is right now. Quinn second, Shadi third.”
Miss · 25Scored 25a naive guess scored 0+25 skillHow this was scored
- best:
- Mike Vrabel
- skill:
- 25
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 0
- settled by:
- wins above the prior-season baseline
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- coaches ranked:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansJan 16, 2026
Houston Texans to beat Patriots
“I cannot believe you sold out Drake May... That's how you know I'm objective... We both took Texans.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 16-28
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksKenyon SadiqJan 16, 2026
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “first round player” (picks 1–32)
“I watched Oregon's tight end last night. He's a first round player.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Kenyon Sadiq
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 16
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round player (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsJan 16, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears
“I'll take Stafford over there. And and for all those who are saying, the weather, the weather, the weather... They'll be fine.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 20-17
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersHit · 88Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Richie BradshawScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersHit · 83Bradshaw picks the 49ers to beat the Cardinals in their Week 3 matchup, predicting a final score of 27-14 in San Francisco's favor.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.