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Mike Florio#15 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 17, 2026

In a video blurb previewing Colts vs. Chiefs, Florio is described as picking Kansas City to win, crediting Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker for pushing the team to victory.

Published in writing · ProFootballTalkRead the original

100Hit · out of 100
Chiefs 33–30What happenedColts at Chiefs
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
#15Mike Florio’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Mike Florio said

why Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker are the pair to push the team to the win
Our reading: Kansas City Chiefs to beat Indianapolis Colts
Where it was published
ProFootballTalk
The piece
PFT Week 2 Preview 2026: Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidSep 17
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 21

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksKansas City Chiefs

    Kansas City Chiefs to beat Indianapolis Colts

    What happenedChiefs 33–30Colts at Chiefs
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Chiefs by 6 · favorite pick, Chiefs 70%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    KC
    score:
    30-33
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

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