Jacob Rubashkin· Oct 17, 2024

Rubashkin said Democrats will lose the West Virginia Senate seat and are underdogs in Montana, leaving Republicans as likely as ever to win a Senate majority though probably a small one. He also ran through Inside Elections' House ratings, including Likely Republican in Arizona's 2nd, Solid Democratic in Oregon's 6th, Tilt Republican in New York's 17th and Arizona's 6th, Tilt Democratic in Pennsylvania's 7th, Kaptur favored in Ohio's 9th, and Golden looking strong in Maine.

“The prospect of a Republican majority remains as high as ever, but the prospect of a large Republican majority is perhaps decreasing.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Inside Elections Podcast · read the original →

10 checkable claims — 9 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 10 have settled, averaging 90 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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10 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“If I had to pick one, I would probably say Arizona six, which we have rated as tilt Republican.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-az-06
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
tilt Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Juan Ciscomani
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Arizona's district 6
decided in the:
general
they said:
Juan Ciscomani
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“There are underdogs in Montana.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tim Sheehy
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Sheehy
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“that's gonna be a challenge, and I think that's why we think Marcy Kaptur is favored”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-oh-09
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Marcy Kaptur
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Ohio's district 9
decided in the:
general
they said:
Marcy Kaptur
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“We just moved that race to solid Democratic, and you guys still have it at lean Democratic.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-or-06
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
solid Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Andrea Salinas
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Oregon's district 6
decided in the:
general
they said:
Andrea Salinas
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“I think that that that district, you know, we currently have it rated as tilt democratic.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-house-pa-07
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
tilt democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Ryan Mackenzie
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Pennsylvania's district 7
decided in the:
general
they said:
Susan Wild
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“I've I've always been bullish on Jared Golden even as we've kind of moved him in... Into more vulnerable positions... But I I do ultimately think, you know, he's... He looks pretty strong there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-me-02
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Jared Forrest Golden
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Maine's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jared Forrest Golden
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“I think we have it appropriately rated at likely Republican, but the the the congressional race is still clearly unsettled.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-az-02
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
likely Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Eli Crane
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Arizona's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Eli Crane
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“The big picture for the senate is still bad for Democrats... They are gonna lose West Virginia.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wv
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jim Justice
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jim Justice
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“we have that race rated tilt republican, which, gosh, if you went back a year and told me that, that would be the worst opportunity for Democrats in in New York”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ny-17
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
tilt republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Mike Lawler
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in New York's district 17
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mike Lawler
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressOct 17, 2024
“So what this means is that the the prospect of a Republican majority remains as high as ever, but the prospect of a large Republican majority is perhaps decreasing”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
in their words:
the prospect of a Republican majority remains as high as ever
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.