Saagar Enjeti· Oct 25, 2022

He agreed that Vance will win the Ohio Senate race, citing how badly 2020 polls underestimated Trump there, and in Michigan's governor race he said that given the polling misses and the political environment he would rather be Tudor Dixon than Gretchen Whitmer.

“I completely agree. And look at Jade Vance. If they say it's tied. Trump was effectively tied with Joe Biden on the eve of the twenty twenty election. He won the state by eight points.”

said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 25, 2022
“So if you factor in that level of a miss, I would much rather be Tutor Dixon in a poll like this... toss up in an unfavorable environment, with the fundamentals where they are, I think i'd probably be the Republican candidate.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-mi
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Gretchen Whitmer
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Michigan gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tudor Dixon
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2022
“I completely agree. And look at Jade Vance. If they say it's tied. Trump was effectively tied with Joe Biden on the eve of the twenty twenty election. He won the state by eight points.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-oh
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
JD Vance
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
JD Vance
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.