Connor Rogers· Oct 9, 2026
Rogers made straight-up winner calls across the Week 5 slate, siding with New England over the Raiders, the Saints upsetting Minnesota, the Colts winning in Pittsburgh, a Jets bounce-back over Cleveland, and the Rams edging Buffalo on Monday night.
“It just feels like it's the day that the Jets pull some shit off.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast) · read the original →
9 checkable claims — 9 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 9 have settled, averaging 55.6 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Texans at Titans 25 calls
- Colts at Steelers 21 calls
- Browns at Jets 19 calls
- Vikings at Saints 27 calls
- Raiders at Patriots 28 calls
- Broncos at Chargers 34 calls
- Lions at Cardinals 24 calls
- Ravens at Falcons 21 calls
- Bills at Rams 41 calls
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsOct 9, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to beat Bills
“I like the Bills to cover this line. I do think the Rams, though, win a dangerously close game.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 37-34
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
Closing line (Oct 12): Rams by 3.5 · favorite pick, Rams 62%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosOct 9, 2026
Denver Broncos to beat chargers
“Broncos win, Broncos cover.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+178 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 23-17
- skill:
- 178
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAC
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
Closing line (Oct 11): Broncos by 3.5 · favorite pick, Broncos 63%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
- Game Outcome PicksAtlanta FalconsOct 9, 2026
Atlanta Falcons to beat Ravens
“I am picking the Falcons to win and cover”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 30-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- ATL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ATL
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
Closing line (Oct 11): Falcons by 3.5 · favorite pick, Falcons 61%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsOct 9, 2026
Detroit Lions to beat Cardinals
“I do think the Lions will win this game, but I I love the Cardinals to cover what is a pretty fat line.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+178 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 45-21
- skill:
- 178
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ARI
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
Closing line (Oct 11): Lions by 5.5 · favorite pick, Lions 70%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsOct 9, 2026
New York Jets to beat Browns
“Jets win in cover. Jets, I think, win by three points.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYJ
- score:
- 12-17
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
Closing line (Oct 11): Jets by 2.5 · favorite pick, Jets 56%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
- Game Outcome PicksNew Orleans SaintsOct 9, 2026
New Orleans Saints to beat Vikings
“I I took the Saints Oh. Covering and winning.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIN
- score:
- 23-13
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NO
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NO
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
Closing line (Oct 11): Vikings by 2.5 · underdog pick, Saints 44%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
- Game Outcome PicksIndianapolis ColtsOct 9, 2026
Indianapolis Colts to beat Steelers
“I don't only take them to cover. I'll take the Colts to win.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-178 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 22-34
- skill:
- −178
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
Closing line (Oct 11): Steelers by 3 · underdog pick, Colts 41%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsOct 9, 2026
New England Patriots to beat Raiders
“I think New England wins this game. Yeah. But, I mean, the Raiders have proven us, us, wrong a lot of times by winning these games.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 17-45
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
Closing line (Oct 11): Patriots by 3.5 · favorite pick, Patriots 62%.
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansOct 9, 2026
Houston Texans to beat Titans
“Yeah. I'm with you. Texans win that Titans cover”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+178 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 26-3
- skill:
- 178
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TEN
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
Closing line (Oct 11): Texans by 6.5 · favorite pick, Texans about 3 in 4 (73%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
What others said about the same people
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 48Dubin picks the Rams to beat the Bills in the Week 5 Monday night game, projecting a 28-24 final score as Los Angeles' Nacua-Adams-Williams trio proves too much for Buffalo's defense.
- Anthony "Tone Digz" DiGuilioGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Picked the Rams to beat the Bills on Monday night because of their defense.
- Darius ButlerGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Said Brian Flores could be Coach of the Year for what he is doing with the Vikings defense, and picked the Rams to beat the Bills on Monday night with Stafford outplaying Josh Allen.
- Pat McAfeeGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Picked the Rams to beat the Bills in the Monday night game at SoFi Stadium.
- AJ HawkGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Took the Rams over the Bills on Monday night, saying they win by seven in a high-scoring quarterback duel.
- Ty SchmitScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 48Predicted a 38-34 Rams win over the Bills on Monday night, and said Micah Parsons will be back on the field for the Packers within the next week or two.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- John GreenGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Green argues the Bills will beat the Rams on Monday Night Football at SoFi Stadium, citing Josh Allen's career success against Los Angeles, James Cook III's rushing against a middling Rams run defense, and Buffalo's edge in special teams field position.
- Blaine GrisakGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Grisak expects the Rams to lose to the Bills on Monday night, dropping to 2-3, before getting right against the Cardinals in Week 6. He also expects Myles Garrett back more realistically in Week 7 against the Raiders and Terrance Ferguson back in Week 8 against the Chargers, and thinks Aaron Donald and Colby Parkinson will be available against Buffalo.
- Ryan WormeliGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Warmly predicted the Bills would beat the Rams on Monday night by at least 10 points and said he does not expect Lamar Jackson to play in Week 5.
- O'Shea Jackson Jr.Game Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Guest-hosting, O'Shea Jackson Jr. went game-by-game through the Rams' schedule and had Los Angeles finishing 14-3, winning the NFC West and taking the No. 1 seed, with losses only at Denver, at home to Buffalo and at Seattle.
- Rob BushkaGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Buschka picked the Rams to start 3-0 and finish 13-4 as division winners, with losses to Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City and San Francisco; he also predicted AJ Brown lands in New England and that rookie Ty Simpson starts three games, throws for over 1,000 yards and wins Rookie of the Year.
- Michael BrockersGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Brock picked the Rams to win nearly every game, with losses only to Buffalo, Washington, San Francisco in December and Seattle on Christmas, finishing 13-4 and winning the NFC West, and said Puka Nacua would top 1,709 receiving yards.