Raiders vs Patriots predictions, graded
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots · Week 5, 2026 · Sun, Oct 11 · Final: Raiders 17, Patriots 45 · Updated
Who do pundits pick in Raiders vs Patriots? Of 25 pundits with a call on record, 16 take the Patriots and 9 take the Raiders. 13 named a score; the median has the Patriots by 3. The Patriots won 45-17, so 16 of 25 had the winner. Their graded calls averaged 48 out of 100.
Who the room took
25 pundits · each counted once, by their latest callRaiders vs Patriots picks by outlet
Each pundit counted once, at the outlet or show their latest call ran on. An outlet is listed when two or more of its pundits have picked.
- CBS SportsPatriots 4, Raiders 2
- First Things First (podcast)Patriots 2, Raiders 1
- The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast)Patriots 1, Raiders 1
The other 14 pundits write or talk elsewhere: Patriots 9, Raiders 5.
Raiders vs Patriots score predictions
13 pundits named a score; the median call is Patriots by 3, and the final was Patriots by 28.
Each dot is one pundit’s latest score call, placed at the winning margin it named. The solid bar is how the game actually finished. Hover or tap a dot for the pundit and the score.
- Shanna McCarristonPatriots 27, Raiders 24Close · 50
- Gennaro FilicePatriots 20, Raiders 17Close · 50
- Jeremy PargoPatriots 23, Raiders 20Close · 50
- Bobby KownackPatriots 24, Raiders 21Close · 50
- Dan ParrPatriots 28, Raiders 26Close · 50
- Brooke CersosimoPatriots 26, Raiders 23Close · 50
- Seth WalderRaiders 23, Patriots 22Miss · 0
- Eric MoodyPatriots 28, Raiders 20Close · 52
- Pamela MaldonadoRaiders 23, Patriots 21Miss · 0
- Jordan DajaniPatriots 24, Raiders 21Close · 50
- Tyler SullivanPatriots 24, Raiders 21Close · 50
- Pete PriscoPatriots 28, Raiders 24Close · 50
- John BreechPatriots 27, Raiders 24Close · 50
Raiders at Patriots: how they came in
The Raiders are 3-1; the Patriots are 2-2. On win totals, 14 pundits put the Raiders at 6.6 wins on average, and 17 pundits put the Patriots at 10 wins on average.
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
- Record coming in
- 3-1 · 115 scored, 84 allowed
- Last games
- L 27-30 vs Chiefs Week 4
- W 35-27 at Saints Week 3
- W 26-14 at Chargers Week 2
- Unit ranks
- offense 17th, defense 31st of 32 (this season)
- Last season
- 3-14
- Win-total calls
- 15 pundits · average 6.6 · 3 to 17 wins
- The room's picks
- the side most pundits took won 2 of 4 Raiders games
- Record coming in
- 2-2 · 65 scored, 77 allowed
- Last games
- W 29-26 at Bills Week 4
- L 6-35 at Jaguars Week 3
- W 20-3 vs Steelers Week 2
- Unit ranks
- offense 11th, defense 17th of 32 (this season)
- Last season
- 14-3
- Win-total calls
- 18 pundits · average 10 · 9 to 17 wins
- The room's picks
- the side most pundits took won 3 of 4 Patriots games
Raiders and Patriots players to watch
Each club’s starting quarterback, leading rusher, receiver and tight end, and its sack and tackle leaders, with their 2026 regular season so far, with the latest call on each from a pundit on our leaderboard whose record beats the naive pick (69 pundits clear that bar), made since the 2026 schedule came out. “No.” is their rank there.
Raiders
- Fernando MendozaStarting QB · QB
48 passing yards · 0 TD, 0 INT · 75.0% completions · 1 game · 52nd in the NFL in passing yards
Fernando Mendoza to be 1st on the depth chart
“Making this trade even more notable is that the Raiders, who received a third-round pick in exchange for Cousins, will now give the keys to the offense to No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza.” the article →
Fernando Mendoza to be 1st on the depth chart
“We don’t know what the Raiders’ internal timetable is for the switch from veteran QB Kirk Cousins to No. 1 draft pick Fernando Mendoza, but it’s possible the team could make that change soon. For the Raiders, this season is all about the transition to Mendoza as the starter.” the article →
- Ashton JeantyRB1 · RB
362 rushing yards on 114 carries · 4 TD · 42 catches for 371 · 9 games · 27th in the NFL in rushing yards
Ashton Jeanty to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
“With Klint Kubiak in town, Fernando Mendoza or Kirk Cousins at the helm, a healthy Brock Bowers, and improved blocking up front, Jeanty could be poised to post a strong RB1 season in his second season.” the article →
Ashton Jeanty to disappoint at the next level
“But if Jeanty keeps picking up only 3.1 yards per carry, he may cede further touches to Washington and settle in as a passing-game specialist. That would be a monumental disappointment given the investment the Raiders made in him at the draft.” the article →
- Tre TuckerWR1 · WR
33 catches for 529 yards · 4 TD · 9 games · 20th in the NFL in receiving yards
Tre Tucker to be 1st on the depth chart
“Tre Tucker erupted for 5-119-1 on seven targets Sunday against the Chargers and has to be considered the Raiders' No. 1 receiver.” the article →
Tre Tucker to play out his deal with no new contract
“I believe Tucker will not sign with the Raiders for less than Jalen Nailor’s $12 million per year.” the article →
- Brock BowersTE1 · TE
48 catches for 658 yards · 6 TD · 7 games · 10th in the NFL in receiving yards
“But, you know, the Raiders, I... Bauer still doesn't practice. Seems unlikely that he plays this week.” the article →
Brock Bowers to outplay his draft cost (anywhere in the back half of the second round in 12-team drafts)
“I think tight end is worth paying up for this year, and I'm willing to take Brock Bowers anywhere in the back half of the second round in 12-team drafts.” the article →
- Maxx CrosbySack leader · DE
4 sacks · 11 solo tackles · 9 games · 30th in the NFL in sacks
Maxx Crosby to move to Las Vegas Raiders
“the Raiders... have really slow start written all over them to the point where they could be trading Max Crosby before the deadline” the article →
Maxx Crosby to stay with Las Vegas Raiders
“He isn't seeking or asking for a trade, and the Raiders aren't asking for or seeking offers... Nothing is imminent, nor is anything in the works at the time of this writing, but there is a market, there is interest, and that means in the NFL, it isn’t probable, but possible.” the article →
- Jeremy ChinnTackle leader · S
1 sack · 44 solo tackles · 1 interception · 9 games · 4th in the NFL in solo tackles
Jeremy Chinn to stay with Las Vegas Raiders
“I think it would take at least a fifth-round pick for consideration, which I am unsure is possible, and a fourth would be a must for the Raiders. I don’t see that at all.” the article →
Patriots
- Drake MayeStarting QB · QB
2,282 passing yards · 18 TD, 11 INT · 65.4% completions · 219 rushing yards · 9 games · 6th in the NFL in passing yards
Drake Maye to finish QB1 (1–12) at his position, by fantasy points
“But yeah, he's either high-end or mid-range QB1, and everyone should be starting him. And the Drake May panic of a week ago was never justified.” the article →
Drake Maye to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points
“Maye should be considered a strong top-five fantasy quarterback option with the ability to push Josh Allen for the QB1 spot if everything goes his way in 2026.” the article →
- Rhamondre StevensonRB1 · RB
399 rushing yards on 102 carries · 4 TD · 26 catches for 258 · 9 games · 22nd in the NFL in rushing yards
“Stevenson is dealing with a knee tendon issue. It won't require surgery, but Stevenson is expected to miss New England's Week 10 game against Detroit” the article →
Rhamondre Stevenson to be 1st on the depth chart
“Unless Stevenson falls off in 2026, he should remain the lead back for New England after playing at least 57% of the snaps in nine of his 14 games played in 2025.” the article →
- DeMario DouglasWR1 · WR
31 catches for 434 yards · 4 TD · 9 games · 31st in the NFL in receiving yards
DeMario Douglas to be 1st on the depth chart
“With Romeo Doubs on IR with a shoulder injury, DeMario Douglas might be New England’s de facto No. 1 receiver when the Patriots host the Packers this Sunday.” the article →
DeMario Douglas to be 3rd on the depth chart
“New England's top three wide receivers for Sunday will be Kyle Williams, Efton Chism III and DeMario Douglas.” the article →
- Hunter HenryTE1 · TE
32 catches for 361 yards · 2 TD · 9 games · 49th in the NFL in receiving yards
- Elijah PonderSack leader · LB
7.5 sacks · 14 solo tackles · 9 games · 4th in the NFL in sacks
- Christian EllissTackle leader · LB
1.5 sacks · 32 solo tackles · 9 games · 34th in the NFL in solo tackles
“Christian Ellis logged full practices. He's questionable. I think he'll play.” the article →
Every call on Raiders at Patriots
1–25 of 28
New England Patriots 27 — Raiders 24
Pick: Patriots 27-24
New England Patriots to beat Raiders
The home team wins a close battle behind Maye's improved play
New England Patriots 23 — Las Vegas Raiders 20
J. Bergman New England Patriots 23-20
New England Patriots 26 — Las Vegas Raiders 23
B. Cersosimo New England Patriots 26-23
New England Patriots 20 — Las Vegas Raiders 17
G. Filice New England Patriots 20-17
New England Patriots 24 — Las Vegas Raiders 21
B. Kownack New England Patriots 24-21
New England Patriots 28 — Las Vegas Raiders 26
D. Parr New England Patriots 28-26
New England Patriots 28 — Raiders 20
Moody's pick: Patriots 28, Raiders 20
Las Vegas Raiders 23 — Patriots 22
Walder's pick: Raiders 23, Patriots 22
Las Vegas Raiders 23 — Patriots 21
Maldonado's pick: Raiders 23, Patriots 21
New England Patriots to beat Raiders
it is the twenty fifth anniversary of that first Super Bowl run, which came with a big, big win over the Raiders. And I think the football gods will be shining on New England
New England Patriots to beat Raiders
I have confidence in Drake May. I have confidence in the patchwork team that we're putting out in the field because Mike Vrabel believes in next man up. I believe we are going to win the game.
Las Vegas Raiders to beat New England
I am going with the Raiders. The Raiders over New England. I told you, I'm not fully convinced that Drake is back.
New England Patriots to beat Raiders
I think New England wins this game. Yeah. But, I mean, the Raiders have proven us, us, wrong a lot of times by winning these games.
Las Vegas Raiders to beat New England
so I will take the Raiders getting the 3.5. And I think they might win outright.
New England Patriots 24 — Raiders 21
Patriots (-3.5) 24-21 over Raiders
New England Patriots to beat Raiders
Patriots win Raider Raiders cover. Think this is gonna be a field goal type game.
Las Vegas Raiders to beat New England Patriots
this does feel like a possible letdown spot for the Patriots after such a monumental victory... Rather, I expect them to go into Gillette Stadium and make the Patriots sweat.
Las Vegas Raiders to beat New England Patriots
so give me the Raiders in this game.
New England Patriots to beat Las Vegas Raiders
I expect them to continue that momentum. At home in Foxborough, give me the Pats.
New England Patriots 24 — Raiders 21
Projected score : Patriots 24, Raiders 21
New England Patriots 28 — Raiders 24
Pick: Patriots 28, Raiders 24
New England Patriots 27 — Raiders 24
PICK: Patriots 27-24 over Raiders (+3.5)
Las Vegas Raiders to beat Patriots
The next three games for the Raiders are the Chiefs, L, Patriots win, Bills, L.
Las Vegas Raiders to beat patriots
And after that, you know, in comes Vegas... I mean, I don't see a win there until week eight.