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Tyler Sullivan#27 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 10, 2026

A CBS Sports piece flags five Week 1 underdogs as upset candidates: the 49ers over the Rams in Melbourne, the Texans over the Bills, the Panthers over the Bears, the Jets over the Titans, and the Broncos over the Chiefs on Monday night.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

2 of 5calls landed2 hits · 3 misses · all settled
40Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
20A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
5Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#27Tyler Sullivan’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Tyler Sullivan said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Below, we'll comb through the Week 1 slate and identify five favorites that could be on upset alert.
Tyler Sullivan, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
Upset alert in Week 1? Why these 5 NFL favorites could easily drop their 2026 season openers
The original
Read the original
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  1. SaidSep 10
  2. PlayedSep 10–14
  3. GradedSep 12–16
  1. 1Denver Broncos to beat Kansas City Chiefs“Denver Broncos (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs ... However, I expect their defense to quickly remind folks of its dominance as we wrap up Week 1 on Monday night.”
  2. 2New York Jets to beat Tennessee Titans“New York Jets (+1.5) at Tennessee Titans ... If Ward is just serviceable in the opener ... New York will have a puncher's chance.”
  3. 3Houston Texans to beat Buffalo Bills“Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (+1.5) ... If the Texans can generate movement on the ground and the defense continues to give Allen fits, they are live.”
  4. 4Carolina Panthers to beat Chicago Bears“Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (+3) ... If those issues rear their head, that's how Carolina pulls off the upset.”
  5. 5San Francisco 49ers to beat Los Angeles Rams“San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) at Los Angeles Rams ... But don't sleep on the Niners either. ... Kyle Shanahan has also typically gotten his team up for the opener, winning three-straight Week 1 contests entering 2026.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Denver Broncos to beat Kansas City Chiefs1Game Outcome PicksChiefs 31–100100−200
New York Jets to beat Tennessee Titans2Game Outcome PicksJets 23–101000+200
Houston Texans to beat Buffalo Bills3Game Outcome PicksBills 36–31000
Carolina Panthers to beat Chicago Bears4Game Outcome PicksBears 59–37000
San Francisco 49ers to beat Los Angeles Rams5Game Outcome Picks49ers 27–71000+200
5 calls · 2 hits · 3 misses · all settled4020

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksDenver Broncos

    Denver Broncos to beat Kansas City Chiefs

    What happenedChiefs 31–10Broncos at Chiefs
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill

    Closing line (Sep 14): Chiefs by 2.5 · underdog pick, Broncos 46%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    won:
    KC
    score:
    10-31
    skill:
    −200
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksNew York Jets

    New York Jets to beat Tennessee Titans

    What happenedJets 23–10Jets at Titans
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive2difficulty+200skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Titans by 1.5 · a toss-up, Jets 48%, Titans 52%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    won:
    NYJ
    score:
    23-10
    skill:
    200
    they picked:
    NYJ
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    TEN
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksHouston Texans

    Houston Texans to beat Buffalo Bills

    What happenedBills 36–31Bills at Texans
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Bills by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 50%, Texans 50%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    36-31
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    HOU
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Game Outcome PicksCarolina Panthers

    Carolina Panthers to beat Chicago Bears

    What happenedBears 59–37Bears at Panthers
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Bears by 3 · underdog pick, Panthers 40%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    won:
    CHI
    score:
    59-37
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    CAR
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    CAR
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Game Outcome PicksSan Francisco 49ers

    San Francisco 49ers to beat Los Angeles Rams

    What happened49ers 27–749ers at Rams
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive2difficulty+200skill

    Closing line (Sep 10): Rams by 3.5 · underdog pick, 49ers about 1 in 3 (34%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    won:
    SF
    score:
    27-7
    skill:
    200
    they picked:
    SF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    LAR
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  6. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once

    40naive 20

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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