Jake RiepmaApr 8, 2026
Jake predicted David Bailey would be the first edge rusher drafted, and in their own Lions mock pick they took Miami edge Akeem Mesador at No. 17 in the 2026 draft. They also expect returning defensive back Ivante Maddox to be starting for Detroit early in the season.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Lions (podcast)Hear the original
What Jake Riepma said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think David Bailey will be the first edge picked.
- Where it was said
- Locked On Lions (podcast)
- The episode
- LIONS SQUAD SHOW: NFL Draft: Mock Draft Simulation Squad Show Style + Avonte Maddox Re-Signed
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidApr 7
- GradedAug 14
- 1Akheem Mesidor to be picked at number 17“just to be different, I'm gonna go with Hakeem Mazadore because, he's on the board still... (Lions at pick 17 in the twenty twenty six NFL draft)”
- 2David Bailey to be 1st edge off the board“I think I think David Bailey will be the first edge picked.”
- 3Avonte Maddox to be 1st on the depth chart“He's a guy that started some games for this Detroit Lions team the past season because he was called into action. And given the position group, he probably will be doing the exact same thing early in the season, especially.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akheem Mesidor to be picked at number 171 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 22 | 80.52 | 50 | — | |
| David Bailey to be 1st edge off the board2 | Position Order Calls | — | 100 | 13.13 | +86.87 | |
| Avonte Maddox to be 1st on the depth chart3 | Depth Chart Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 3 calls · 2 hits · 1 waiting | 90.3 | 31.6 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive3 checkable claims — 1 depth chart call, 1 mock draft pick and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 90.3 out of 100, against 31.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksAkheem MesidorDetroit Lions
Akheem Mesidor to be picked at number 17
What happenedWent 22mocked at 1780.52Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Akheem Mesidor
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 22
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
2Position Order CallsDavid Bailey
David Bailey to be 1st edge off the board
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 13.13100this call−13.13a naive guess=86.87better than naive×1difficulty=+86.87skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 26 at random averages 13.13
- skill:
- 86.87
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 13.13
- position:
- edge
- class size:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 1
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
3Depth Chart CallsAvonte MaddoxDetroit Lions
Avonte Maddox to be 1st on the depth chart
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
90.3naive 31.6
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Christian Booher · Roster Spot Calls · Anthony Lucas · Miss 0
Booher previews the Lions' Week 9 trip to Miami, predicting Derrick Barnes takes over as the green-dot linebacker in Jack Campbell's absence, Juice Scruggs starts at center, and boldly forecasting Detroit's first defensive touchdown of the season on an Aidan Hutchinson strip-sack recovered and returned by Barnes.Evan “Foxy” Fox · Score Predictions · Detroit Lions · Close 67
Foxy predicted a blowout Lions win over the Dolphins by a score of 45-21.Chris Simms · Score Predictions · Detroit Lions · Hit 100
Simms gave a predicted final score for every Week 9 game, picking the Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos, Lions, Giants, Rams, Cowboys, Saints, 49ers, Patriots, Seahawks, Texans, Bears and Bills, and also said they wouldn't be shocked to see Jacksonville reach the AFC Championship Game.Nick Wright · Game Outcome Picks · Detroit Lions · Hit 100
Wright made several outright game calls for Week 9 alongside their spread picks: Kansas City beating the Jets 31-20, Detroit winning at Miami, New England edging Green Bay by a field goal or so, Carolina winning outright over Denver, and Houston blowing out the Chargers 27-12.Richard Sherman · Score Predictions · Detroit Lions · Hit 81
Sherman ranked the 49ers first in their Week 9 top five ahead of Buffalo, Chicago, Jacksonville and Denver, picked every Week 9 game with scores, and gave midseason award picks headlined by Brock Purdy for MVP and Kyle Shanahan for Coach of the Year.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Michael Moore · Depth Chart Calls · Shedeur Sanders · Hit 100
In a Week 9 injury roundup, Moore forecast which banged-up fantasy contributors would play or sit: Deshaun Watson, Garrett Wilson, David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, TreVeyon Henderson and Terrance Ferguson are expected out, while Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley, Michael Wilson, Christian Watson and Emeka Egbuka should play. They also expect Shedeur Sanders and Drew Lock to start at quarterback.Nic Bodiford · Depth Chart Calls · Joe Fagnano · Hit 100
Previewing Week 9 running game matchups, Bodiford expects Jacksonville to win lopsidedly over a depleted Baltimore team, with Bhayshul Tuten sitting out and Chris Rodriguez taking over as lead back, while Joe Fagnano starts at quarterback for the Ravens. They also view Broncos rookie Jonah Coleman as an RB2 going forward.