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Tyler Sullivan· Oct 22, 2026

Sullivan's Week 7 picks had the Rams beating the Raiders, the Browns beating the Titans, and the Steelers beating the Saints, all with exact scores.

published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 3 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 87.3 out of 100, against 31 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Los Angeles Rams 30 — Raiders 27

    “Rams 30, Raiders 27”

    Close · 74Scored 73.81a naive guess scored 15.84+96.82 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    35-21
    skill:
    96.82
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    73.81
    baseline:
    15.84
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    14
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    −0.35
    predicted margin:
    3

    Closing line (Oct 25): Rams by 3.5, total 49.5 · this 30–27 calls a closer game (Rams by 3) and more points (57).

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  • Cleveland Browns 24 — Titans 17

    “Browns 24, Titans 17”

    Hit · 90Scored 90.48a naive guess scored 42.18+80.65 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    27-24
    skill:
    80.65
    they picked:
    CLE
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    90.48
    baseline:
    42.18
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    −0.28
    predicted margin:
    7

    Closing line (Oct 25): Browns by 1.5, total 36.5 · this 24–17 calls a bigger Browns win (by 7) and more points (41).

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  • Pittsburgh Steelers 30 — Saints 23

    “Steelers 30, Saints 23”

    Hit · 98Scored 97.62a naive guess scored 35.04+104.51 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    16-10
    skill:
    104.51
    they picked:
    PIT
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    97.62
    baseline:
    35.04
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    −0.28
    predicted margin:
    7

    Closing line (Oct 25): Steelers by 3, total 43.5 · this 30–23 calls a bigger Steelers win (by 7) and more points (53).

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

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