Matt Verderame#83 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 9, 2026
Verderame's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
What Matt Verderame said
Matt Verderame, the lead quote
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- NFL Week 1 Picks From the MMQB Staff: Texans Host Bills in Early AFC Clash
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 9
- PlayedSep 9–14
- GradedSep 11–16
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Outcome Picks | 10 | 0 | 6 | 0 | |
| All | 10 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
16 checkable claims — 16 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 16 have settled, averaging 62.5 out of 100, against 62.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Game Outcome Picks10 hits · 6 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
- Chiefs 31–10Broncos at Chiefs100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 14): Chiefs by 2.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs 54%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 10-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Ravens 41–23Ravens at Colts100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Ravens by 3 · favorite pick, Ravens 59%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 41-23
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Falcons
“Falcons at Steelers — Matt Verderame: Steelers”
Steelers 20–13Falcons at Steelers100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Steelers by 6.5 · favorite pick, Steelers 72%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 13-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Bills 36–31Bills at Texans0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bills by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 50%, Texans 50%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 36-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Commanders
“Commanders at Eagles — Matt Verderame: Eagles”
Eagles 24–22Commanders at Eagles100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Eagles by 6 · favorite pick, Eagles about 2 in 3 (68%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 22-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Vikings 39–22Packers at Vikings0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Vikings by 1.5 · a toss-up, Packers 47%, Vikings 53%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- MIN
- score:
- 22-39
- skill:
- −200
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Lions 31–30Saints at Lions100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Lions by 7 · favorite pick, Lions about 3 in 4 (73%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 30-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Cardinals
“Cardinals at Chargers — Matt Verderame: Chargers”
Cardinals 26–14Cardinals at Chargers0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Chargers by 8.5 · favorite pick, Chargers about 4 in 5 (79%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- ARI
- score:
- 26-14
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAC
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Raiders 27–13Dolphins at Raiders100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Raiders by 3 · favorite pick, Raiders 60%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- LV
- score:
- 13-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LV
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- LV
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Jets 23–10Jets at Titans0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Titans by 1.5 · a toss-up, Jets 48%, Titans 52%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NYJ
- score:
- 23-10
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TEN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Giants 28–20Cowboys at Giants0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Cowboys by 3 · favorite pick, Cowboys 60%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NYG
- score:
- 20-28
- skill:
- −200
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NYG
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Buccaneers
“Buccaneers at Bengals — Matt Verderame: Bengals”
Bengals 33–27Buccaneers at Bengals100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bengals by 3.5 · favorite pick, Bengals about 2 in 3 (64%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 27-33
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Browns
“Browns at Jaguars — Matt Verderame: Jaguars”
Jaguars 34–10Browns at Jaguars100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Jaguars by 8.5 · favorite pick, Jaguars about 4 in 5 (79%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 10-34
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Bears 59–37Bears at Panthers100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bears by 3 · favorite pick, Bears 60%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 59-37
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- 49ers 27–749ers at Rams0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 10): Rams by 3.5 · favorite pick, Rams about 2 in 3 (66%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- SF
- score:
- 27-7
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Seahawks 13–10Patriots at Seahawks100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 9): Seahawks by 3 · favorite pick, Seahawks 60%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 10-13
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on each- Patriots at SeahawksSeahawks 13Patriots 1027 calls →
- 49ers at Rams49ers 27Rams 735 calls →
- Saints at LionsLions 31Saints 3020 calls →
- Jets at TitansJets 23Titans 1020 calls →
- Falcons at SteelersSteelers 20Falcons 1327 calls →
- Browns at JaguarsJaguars 34Browns 1037 calls →
- Ravens at ColtsRavens 41Colts 2320 calls →
- Bills at TexansBills 36Texans 3134 calls →
- Bears at PanthersBears 59Panthers 3723 calls →
- Buccaneers at BengalsBengals 33Buccaneers 2724 calls →
- Cardinals at ChargersCardinals 26Chargers 1420 calls →
- Dolphins at RaidersRaiders 27Dolphins 1339 calls →
- Packers at VikingsVikings 39Packers 2235 calls →
- Commanders at EaglesEagles 24Commanders 2227 calls →
- Cowboys at GiantsGiants 28Cowboys 2032 calls →
- Broncos at ChiefsChiefs 31Broncos 1042 calls →
Who this take is about
Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.John Pluym · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Pluym picked the Giants, Patriots, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Colts, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.