John Pluym#82 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 9, 2026

Pluym's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

10 of 16calls landed10 hits · 6 misses · all settled

62.5Average accuracyout of 100, across 16 calls

62.5A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

16Games calledeveryone’s picks below

#82John Pluym’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What John Pluym said

John Pluym, the lead quote

Where it was published: Sports Illustrated
The piece: NFL Week 1 Picks From the MMQB Staff: Texans Host Bills in Early AFC Clash
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 9
PlayedSep 9–14
GradedSep 11–16

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses	Waiting	Calls
Game Outcome Picks	10	0	6	0
All	10	0	6	0

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

16 checkable claims — 16 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 16 have settled, averaging 62.5 out of 100, against 62.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game Outcome Picks10 hits · 6 missesShow ▸

Kansas City Chiefs to beat Broncos
“Broncos at Chiefs — John Pluym: Chiefs”
Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs 31–10Broncos at Chiefs
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 14): Chiefs by 2.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs 54%.
How this was scored
won:
KC
score:
10-31
skill:
0
they picked:
KC
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
KC
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Las Vegas Raiders to beat Dolphins
“Dolphins at Raiders — John Pluym: Raiders”
Las Vegas Raiders
Raiders 27–13Dolphins at Raiders
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Raiders by 3 · favorite pick, Raiders 60%.
How this was scored
won:
LV
score:
13-27
skill:
0
they picked:
LV
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
LV
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Detroit Lions to beat Saints
“Saints at Lions — John Pluym: Lions”
Detroit Lions
Lions 31–30Saints at Lions
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Lions by 7 · favorite pick, Lions about 3 in 4 (73%).
How this was scored
won:
DET
score:
30-31
skill:
0
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
DET
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Minnesota Vikings to beat Packers
“Packers at Vikings — John Pluym: Vikings”
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings 39–22Packers at Vikings
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Vikings by 1.5 · a toss-up, Packers 47%, Vikings 53%.
How this was scored
won:
MIN
score:
22-39
skill:
0
they picked:
MIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
MIN
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Tennessee Titans to beat Jets
“Jets at Titans — John Pluym: Titans”
Tennessee Titans
Jets 23–10Jets at Titans
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Titans by 1.5 · a toss-up, Jets 48%, Titans 52%.
How this was scored
won:
NYJ
score:
23-10
skill:
0
they picked:
TEN
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
TEN
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens to beat Colts
“Ravens at Colts — John Pluym: Ravens”
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens 41–23Ravens at Colts
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Ravens by 3 · favorite pick, Ravens 59%.
How this was scored
won:
BAL
score:
41-23
skill:
200
they picked:
BAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
IND
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Falcons
“Falcons at Steelers — John Pluym: Steelers”
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers 20–13Falcons at Steelers
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Steelers by 6.5 · favorite pick, Steelers 72%.
How this was scored
won:
PIT
score:
13-20
skill:
0
they picked:
PIT
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
PIT
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Carolina Panthers to beat Bears
“Bears at Panthers — John Pluym: Panthers”
Carolina Panthers
Bears 59–37Bears at Panthers
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bears by 3 · underdog pick, Panthers 40%.
How this was scored
won:
CHI
score:
59-37
skill:
0
they picked:
CAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
CAR
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Browns
“Browns at Jaguars — John Pluym: Jaguars”
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars 34–10Browns at Jaguars
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Jaguars by 8.5 · favorite pick, Jaguars about 4 in 5 (79%).
How this was scored
won:
JAX
score:
10-34
skill:
0
they picked:
JAX
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
JAX
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Houston Texans to beat Bills
“Bills at Texans — John Pluym: Texans”
Houston Texans
Bills 36–31Bills at Texans
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bills by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 50%, Texans 50%.
How this was scored
won:
BUF
score:
36-31
skill:
0
they picked:
HOU
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Dallas Cowboys to beat Giants
“Cowboys at Giants — John Pluym: Cowboys”
Dallas Cowboys
Giants 28–20Cowboys at Giants
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Cowboys by 3 · favorite pick, Cowboys 60%.
How this was scored
won:
NYG
score:
20-28
skill:
−200
they picked:
DAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
NYG
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Commanders
“Commanders at Eagles — John Pluym: Eagles”
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles 24–22Commanders at Eagles
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Eagles by 6 · favorite pick, Eagles about 2 in 3 (68%).
How this was scored
won:
PHI
score:
22-24
skill:
0
they picked:
PHI
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Buccaneers
“Buccaneers at Bengals — John Pluym: Bengals”
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals 33–27Buccaneers at Bengals
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bengals by 3.5 · favorite pick, Bengals about 2 in 3 (64%).
How this was scored
won:
CIN
score:
27-33
skill:
0
they picked:
CIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
CIN
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Cardinals
“Cardinals at Chargers — John Pluym: Chargers”
Los Angeles Chargers
Cardinals 26–14Cardinals at Chargers
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Chargers by 8.5 · favorite pick, Chargers about 4 in 5 (79%).
How this was scored
won:
ARI
score:
26-14
skill:
0
they picked:
LAC
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
LAC
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Rams to beat 49ers
“49ers vs. Rams — John Pluym: Rams”
Los Angeles Rams
49ers 27–749ers at Rams
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 10): Rams by 3.5 · favorite pick, Rams about 2 in 3 (66%).
How this was scored
won:
SF
score:
27-7
skill:
0
they picked:
LAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
LAR
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Seattle Seahawks to beat Patriots
“Patriots at Seahawks — John Pluym: Seahawks”
Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks 13–10Patriots at Seahawks
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 9): Seahawks by 3 · favorite pick, Seahawks 60%.
How this was scored
won:
SEA
score:
10-13
skill:
0
they picked:
SEA
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
SEA
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?