Tyler Sullivan#27 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 5, 2026

Sullivan argues the 2-2 Packers are a hollow.500 team unlikely to climb over.500 during a tough three-game stretch, expects the Chargers to keep losing with Denver and Kansas City up next, calls the Jaguars the league's most underrated team, and says the Raiders are legitimately good despite their first loss.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

2 of 2calls landed2 hits · 2 waiting

100Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls

50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

2Games calledeveryone’s picks below

#27Tyler Sullivan’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Tyler Sullivan said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

The Chargers are 0-4, and it doesn't feel like a win is coming anytime soon, facing the Broncos in Week 5 and then the Chiefs in Kansas City in Week 6.

Tyler Sullivan, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was published: CBS Sports
The piece: Cover 32: Packers don't instill any faith on possible playoff run, plus game balls, biggest gaffes from Week 4
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 5
PlayedOct 11–18
GradedOct 12–19

1Kansas City Chiefs to beat Chargers“it doesn't feel like a win is coming anytime soon, facing the Broncos in Week 5 and then the Chiefs in Kansas City in Week 6”
2Denver Broncos to beat Chargers“The Chargers are 0-4, and it doesn't feel like a win is coming anytime soon, facing the Broncos in Week 5”
3Las Vegas Raiders to beat expectations“Even though they suffered their first loss of the season, the Raiders feel like they are for real.”
4Jacksonville Jaguars to beat expectations“The Jaguars, who moved to 3-1 with a win over Cincinnati, are the most underrated team in the NFL right now.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Chargers¹	Game Outcome Picks	Chiefs 22–6	100	100	0
Denver Broncos to beat Chargers²	Game Outcome Picks	Broncos 23–17	100	0	+183
Las Vegas Raiders to beat expectations³	Surprise Team Calls	—	—	—	—
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat expectations⁴	Surprise Team Calls	—	—	—	—
4 calls · 2 hits · 2 waiting			100	50

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

4 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks and 2 surprise team calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

2 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Chargers
What happenedChiefs 22–6Chargers at Chiefs
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.83difficulty0skill
How this was scored
won:
KC
score:
6-22
skill:
0
they picked:
KC
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
KC
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
15
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos to beat Chargers
What happenedBroncos 23–17Broncos at Chargers
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.83difficulty+183skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Broncos by 3.5 · favorite pick, Broncos 63%.
How this was scored
won:
DEN
score:
23-17
skill:
183
they picked:
DEN
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
LAC
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
15
Think this is wrong?
3Surprise Team Calls Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders to beat expectations
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
4Surprise Team Calls Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat expectations
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 50

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.
Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.
Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.
Andrew Erickson · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Erickson floated Kansas City as the landing spot for Josh Downs and said a trade there would make them at least a WR3 rest of season; they also expect Rashee Rice to leave the Chiefs after this season as a free agent.
Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.
Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.
Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.