Mike Murphy· Oct 26, 2022

Murphy expects a Republican wave that carries Mehmet Oz to victory in Pennsylvania's Senate race, says Charlie Crist's debate performance won't change the outcome of Florida's governor race (i.e., DeSantis wins), and bets that Chuck Grassley survives in Iowa despite a close race driven by his age.

“right now, I believe the trajectory is wave, and that means Oz.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Hacks On Tap · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 3 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“They both have an opportunity to be in a somewhat different race tomorrow because right now, I believe the trajectory is wave, and that means Oz.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
John K. Fetterman
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mehmet Oz
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“He's a survivor. He never quits, and he put a few scratches on DeSantis. Not enough, I think, to change the outcome”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ron DeSantis
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron DeSantis
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“In a wave election, I'll bet Grassley hangs on... My guess would be the wave will save him despite this, I think, real problem.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-ia
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Chuck Grassley
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Iowa
decided in the:
general
they said:
Chuck Grassley
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.