Saagar Enjeti· Oct 27, 2022
Arguing that national fundamentals outweigh candidate quality, he said he would bet on Oz, Herschel Walker and Blake Masters all winning their Senate races, said he would rather be Oz in Pennsylvania given the trend, and suggested Republicans had enough momentum to win the Senate majority without needing Georgia.
“If I were to bet on the fundamentals, I would bet on all three to actually win their race.”
said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 4 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Control of CongressOct 27, 2022
“Republicans have enough of a head of steam that I don't know that they're going to need this seat in order to pick up the chamber.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- −102
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2022-senate
- who controls it:
- Democratic
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- who controlled it before:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 27, 2022
“those people are all tied in the polls. If I were to bet on the fundamentals, I would bet on all three to actually win their race ... I personally I put my money on it. I was like, all right, fine, I think Oz is going to win.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2022-senate-pa
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- John K. Fetterman
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Mehmet Oz
- days before the vote when called:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 27, 2022
“candidates as poor quality as oz Herschel Walker and Blake Masters ... If I were to bet on the fundamentals, I would bet on all three to actually win their race.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2022-senate-az
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- −102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- Mark Kelly
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Blake Masters
- days before the vote when called:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 27, 2022
“candidates as poor quality as oz Herschel Walker and Blake Masters ... If I were to bet on the fundamentals, I would bet on all three to actually win their race.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2022-senate-ga
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- −102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- Raphael Warnock
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
- decided in the:
- runoff
- they said:
- Herschel Junior Walker
- days before the vote when called:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.