John Ashbrook· Oct 26, 2022

Predicted Republicans win the Senate majority with 51 seats, holding all of their current seats and winning Pennsylvania with Oz, plus Ohio and Wisconsin.

“I think Republicans do take the senate, and I think we protect all of our real estate.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 3 race winners, 1 control of congres and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 52 out of 100, against 76 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“I think that Oz wins in Pennsylvania.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
John K. Fetterman
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mehmet Oz
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“We win Ohio.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-oh
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
JD Vance
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
JD Vance
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressOct 26, 2022
“Never like to do this, but I'm gonna say 51. I I think I think Republicans do take the senate”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsOct 26, 2022
“Never like to do this, but I'm gonna say 51.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 80-20.4 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−20.4
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
60
baseline:
80
they said:
51
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“We win Wisconsin.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-wi
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ron Johnson
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron Johnson
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.