Lakshya Jain· Nov 7, 2022

In Split Ticket's final 2022 Senate ratings, Jain says Republicans are slightly more likely than not to take the Senate majority, rates Pennsylvania Leans Republican, and rates New Hampshire, Arizona and Nevada Leans Democratic, with Georgia expected to go to a runoff. He also says Ohio, North Carolina and Wisconsin are on solid Republican ground and that Josh Shapiro will cruise to the Pennsylvania governorship.

“If we had to pick which party we think will be in the majority come January, it would probably be the Republicans.”

published in writing · Split Ticket · read the original →

10 checkable claims — 8 race winners and 2 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 10 have settled, averaging 70 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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10 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“should give Kelly enough juice to hang on even in an R+2 year ... and so we rate this race as LEANS DEMOCRATIC .”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-az
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mark Kelly
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mark Kelly
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 7, 2022
“With that said, if we had to pick which party we think will be in the majority come January, it would probably be the Republicans .”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
in their words:
if we had to pick which party we think will be in the majority come January, it would probably be the Republicans
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 7, 2022
“We’re of the opinion that Republicans are slightly more likely than not to regain the majority, but we wouldn’t be surprised to be proven wrong.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
in their words:
Republicans are slightly more likely than not to regain the majority
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“we think Cortez Masto takes this race by the barest of margins ... and so we rate this race as LEANS DEMOCRATIC .”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Catherine Cortez Masto
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Josh Shapiro looks set to cruise to the governorship against state senator Doug Mastriano, who appears to be toxic to most of Pennsylvania.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Josh Shapiro
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Josh Shapiro
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Lastly, Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin have now moved more firmly into the Republican column, to a point where upsets are plausible but unlikely for Democrats”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-nc
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ted Budd
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Budd
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“the GOP is on far more solid ground in Wisconsin, Ohio, and North Carolina than the Democrats are in Nevada, Arizona, or Georgia”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-wi
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ron Johnson
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron Johnson
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“we are inclined to go with the party out of power in a state more Republican than the nation overall, and so we rate this seat as LEANS REPUBLICAN .”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
LEANS REPUBLICAN
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
John K. Fetterman
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mehmet Oz
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Lastly, Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin have now moved more firmly into the Republican column, to a point where upsets are plausible but unlikely for Democrats”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-oh
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
JD Vance
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
JD Vance
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“While we maintain that Hassan remains the clear favorite, the race has evolved into a real one now and thus is downgraded to LEANS DEMOCRATIC.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-nh
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Maggie Hassan
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
they said:
Maggie Hassan
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.