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Mike MoraitisAug 7, 2026

Moraitis says Coby Bryant, Dillon Thieneman, Elijah Hicks and Cam Lewis are locks to make the Bears' 53-man roster, and that newly signed safety Xavier Woods has a chance to stick given Chicago's secondary injuries.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

3 of 3calls landed3 hits · 1 waiting
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
66.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3 of 4Settled1 still waiting
1Waitingnot graded yet

What Mike Moraitis said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Bryant, Dillon Thieneman, Elijah Hicks and Cam Lewis are all locks to make the roster
Mike Moraitis, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Chicago Bears Sign Veteran DB, Place Another on Injured Reserve
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidAug 7
  2. GradedSep 25
  1. 1Elijah Hicks to make the roster“Bryant, Dillon Thieneman, Elijah Hicks and Cam Lewis are all locks to make the roster”
  2. 2Dillon Thieneman to make the roster“Bryant, Dillon Thieneman, Elijah Hicks and Cam Lewis are all locks to make the roster”
  3. 3Cam Lewis to make the roster“Bryant, Dillon Thieneman, Elijah Hicks and Cam Lewis are all locks to make the roster”
  4. 4Coby Bryant to make the roster“Bryant, Dillon Thieneman, Elijah Hicks and Cam Lewis are all locks to make the roster”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Elijah Hicks to make the roster1Roster Spot Calls3 weeks on a 531001000
Dillon Thieneman to make the roster2Roster Spot Calls3 weeks on a 531000+200
Cam Lewis to make the roster3Roster Spot Calls3 weeks on a 531001000
Coby Bryant to make the roster4Roster Spot Calls————
4 calls · 3 hits · 1 waiting10066.7

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

4 checkable claims — 4 roster spot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Roster Spot CallsElijah HicksChicago Bears

    Elijah Hicks to make the roster

    What happened3 weeks on a 53
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    CHI
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Elijah Hicks
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    he makes the 53
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks on the53:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    18
    first week on the53:
    1
    weeks on the practice squad:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  2. 2Roster Spot CallsDillon ThienemanChicago Bears

    Dillon Thieneman to make the roster

    What happened3 weeks on a 53
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive2difficulty+200skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    CHI
    skill:
    200
    player:
    Dillon Thieneman
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    he makes the 53
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks on the53:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    18
    first week on the53:
    1
    weeks on the practice squad:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  3. What happened3 weeks on a 53
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    CHI
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Cam Lewis
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    he makes the 53
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks on the53:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    18
    first week on the53:
    1
    weeks on the practice squad:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  4. 4Roster Spot CallsCoby BryantChicago Bears

    Coby Bryant to make the roster

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  5. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    100naive 66.7

Others on the same people

More roster spot calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.