Marcus Mosher#41 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 19, 2024
Mosher ranks the top nine quarterbacks expected to hit free agency in March 2024, with Kirk Cousins first and Baker Mayfield second, and forecasts where most of them will land — Mayfield back in Tampa Bay, Minshew back in Indianapolis, Darnold back in San Francisco as a backup, Winston staying in New Orleans as a backup and Huntley remaining a backup with Baltimore.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Marcus Mosher said
With all the success Mayfield is having in Tampa Bay, it would be a major upset if he didn't land back with the Buccaneers in 2024.
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2024 NFL Free Agency: Ranking Top 9 QBs On This Year's Market | The 33rd Team
- The original
- The copy as archived Mar 11, 2024
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidJan 19, 2024
- GradedAug 5, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Depth Chart Calls | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Top Player Lists | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trade and Signing Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | |
| All | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
How each call scored
11 checkable claims — 5 depth chart calls, 5 trade and signing calls and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
6 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 95 out of 100, against 86.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Depth Chart Calls5 hitsShow ▸Hide ▾
Tyler Huntley to be 2nd on the depth chart
“But don't expect Huntley to get anything more than a backup job in free agency.”
No. 2called No. 2 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tyler Huntley
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Jacoby Brissett to be 2nd on the depth chart
“Expect him to be a backup again in 2024, but to be in a situation where he might have a better chance of getting on the field again.”
No. 2called No. 2 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 91.67 naive = 8.33 × 1 difficulty = +8.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- WAS
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- Jacoby Brissett
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Sam Darnold to be 2nd on the depth chart
“it's more likely he returns to San Francisco to be the backup again”
No. 2called No. 2 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 91.67 naive = 8.33 × 1 difficulty = +8.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- Sam Darnold
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Jameis Winston to be 2nd on the depth chart
“The most likely outcome is Winston will remain the backup quarterback in New Orleans on a new deal”
No. 2called No. 2 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- NO
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jameis Winston
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Tyrod Taylor to be 2nd on the depth chart
“Look for teams with young quarterbacks on rookie deals to bring in Taylor as a backup.”
No. 1called No. 2 · by passing yards91.67Hit91.67 − 83.33 naive = 8.34 × 1 difficulty = +8.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- Tyrod Taylor
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Top Player Lists1 close callShow ▸Hide ▾
“Here are the top nine quarterbacks that are expected to test free agency in March: Ranking Top Free Agent QBs 1. Kirk Cousins ... 9. Tyrod Taylor”
78.33Close78.33 − 50 naive = 28.33 × 1 difficulty = +28.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 28.33
- placed:
- 9
- season:
- 2023
- players:
- 9
- accuracy:
- 78.33
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 9: 78.33
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Trade and Signing Calls5 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Gardner Minshew to move to Indianapolis Colts
“Expect him to return to Indianapolis on a short deal.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Jameis Winston to move to New Orleans Saints
“The most likely outcome is Winston will remain the backup quarterback in New Orleans on a new deal”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Baker Mayfield to move to Tampa Bay Buccaneers
“it would be a major upset if he didn't land back with the Buccaneers in 2024”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Sam Darnold to move to San Francisco 49ers
“it's more likely he returns to San Francisco to be the backup again”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Tyler Huntley to move to Baltimore Ravens
“It would be a big shock if another team stole him from the Ravens.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Brandon Carney · Trade and Signing Calls · Mike Evans · Miss 0
Carney predicts Geno Smith signs with the Vikings and starts for them, that at least four of the fringe veteran quarterbacks (Tua, Kyler, Cousins, Fields, Geno) will be starters next season, and that Mike Evans stays with Tampa Bay. They also rank their top fantasy wide receivers and comments on running back landing spots and trade values.Dalton Feely · Trade and Signing Calls · Chris Godwin Jr. · Hit 100
Feenie predicted Chris Godwin stays in Tampa Bay, Josh Sweat reunites with Jonathan Gannon in Arizona, Ronnie Stanley signs with New England, Jevon Holland lands in Indianapolis, Khalil Mack joins Washington, Asante Samuel Jr. goes to San Francisco, Najee Harris to the Raiders and Bobby Wagner to Dallas.Rich Eisen · Trade and Signing Calls · Sam Darnold · Miss 0
Eisen expects Sam Darnold to remain in Minnesota rather than leave in free agency, and believes the Browns will trade Myles Garrett out of the conference, to an NFC team.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Michael Moore · Depth Chart Calls · Shedeur Sanders · Hit 100
In a Week 9 injury roundup, Moore forecast which banged-up fantasy contributors would play or sit: Deshaun Watson, Garrett Wilson, David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, TreVeyon Henderson and Terrance Ferguson are expected out, while Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley, Michael Wilson, Christian Watson and Emeka Egbuka should play. They also expect Shedeur Sanders and Drew Lock to start at quarterback.Jacob Herlin · Depth Chart Calls · J.J. McCarthy · Hit 100
Herlin published Week 7 fantasy D/ST rankings with projections for 28 team defenses, led by Houston, Minnesota and Cleveland. They also expect Cleveland to post a fourth straight top-10 fantasy defense result, and predicts Jalon Daniels starts another week for Tampa Bay while J.J. McCarthy takes over as the Giants' starter.