Marcus Mosher· Jan 19, 2024
Mosher ranks the top nine quarterbacks expected to hit free agency in March 2024, with Kirk Cousins first and Baker Mayfield second, and forecasts where most of them will land — Mayfield back in Tampa Bay, Minshew back in Indianapolis, Darnold back in San Francisco as a backup, Winston staying in New Orleans as a backup and Huntley remaining a backup with Baltimore.
“With all the success Mayfield is having in Tampa Bay, it would be a major upset if he didn't land back with the Buccaneers in 2024.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Mar 11, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
11 checkable claims — 5 depth chart calls, 5 trade and signing calls and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
6 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 95 out of 100, against 86.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
11 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Depth Chart CallsTyler HuntleyBaltimore RavensJan 19, 2024
Tyler Huntley to be 2nd on the depth chart
“But don't expect Huntley to get anything more than a backup job in free agency.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tyler Huntley
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Top Player ListsJan 19, 2024
“Here are the top nine quarterbacks that are expected to test free agency in March: Ranking Top Free Agent QBs 1. Kirk Cousins ... 9. Tyrod Taylor”
Close · 78Scored 78.33a naive guess scored 50+28.33 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 28.33
- placed:
- 9
- season:
- 2023
- players:
- 9
- accuracy:
- 78.33
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 9: 78.33
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Depth Chart CallsJacoby BrissettJan 19, 2024
Jacoby Brissett to be 2nd on the depth chart
“Expect him to be a backup again in 2024, but to be in a situation where he might have a better chance of getting on the field again.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+8.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- WAS
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- Jacoby Brissett
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Depth Chart CallsSam DarnoldSan Francisco 49ersJan 19, 2024
Sam Darnold to be 2nd on the depth chart
“it's more likely he returns to San Francisco to be the backup again”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+8.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- Sam Darnold
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Jameis Winston to be 2nd on the depth chart
“The most likely outcome is Winston will remain the backup quarterback in New Orleans on a new deal”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NO
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jameis Winston
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Depth Chart CallsTyrod TaylorJan 19, 2024
Tyrod Taylor to be 2nd on the depth chart
“Look for teams with young quarterbacks on rookie deals to bring in Taylor as a backup.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 83.33+8.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- Tyrod Taylor
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Baker Mayfield to move to Tampa Bay Buccaneers
“it would be a major upset if he didn't land back with the Buccaneers in 2024”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Gardner Minshew to move to Indianapolis Colts
“Expect him to return to Indianapolis on a short deal.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Tyler Huntley to move to Baltimore Ravens
“It would be a big shock if another team stole him from the Ravens.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Sam Darnold to move to San Francisco 49ers
“it's more likely he returns to San Francisco to be the backup again”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Jameis Winston to move to New Orleans Saints
“The most likely outcome is Winston will remain the backup quarterback in New Orleans on a new deal”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Ross JacksonScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 38Ross Jackson picked the Saints to beat the Raiders at home, projecting a 27-24 final score with the Raiders scoring 24 points.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersHit · 81Simms went through every Week 2 game with predicted final scores, picking the Texans, Bears, Steelers (as an upset), Packers, Ravens, Eagles, Buccaneers, Panthers, Jaguars, Seahawks, Cowboys, 49ers, Chargers, Chiefs and Rams to win. He also reiterated that Denver was his preseason Super Bowl pick while predicting the Broncos would fall to 0-2.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Baltimore RavensHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Marcus RayScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 19Marcus predicted a 30-13 Buccaneers win over Cleveland with three touchdowns and three field goals, and picked the Raiders to beat a Jim Harbaugh team to start 2-0.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Garrett PodellDepth Chart Calls · Case KeenumHit · 100Podell ranks all 32 current NFL starting quarterbacks entering Week 3 of the 2026 season, with Josh Allen first, Patrick Mahomes second and Case Keenum last. He also expects Kyler Murray and Michael Penix Jr. to return to action in Week 3 and Case Keenum to possibly start for the Bears.
- Fox SportsDepth Chart Calls · Case KeenumHit · 100A roundup of NFC injury news expects Jameis Winston to start for the Giants in any games Jaxson Dart misses, and suggests third-stringer Case Keenum could end up starting for the Bears against the Eagles in Week 3 with both Caleb Williams and Tyson Bagent sidelined.
- Fox SportsDepth Chart Calls · Case KeenumHit · 100With Caleb Williams injured and Tyson Bagent in concussion protocol, third-string quarterback Case Keenum is expected to start for the Bears against the Eagles in Week 3.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Jonah ColemanMiss · 0In his Week 3 waiver column, Fitzmaurice makes several depth-chart calls around injuries: Jonah Coleman leading Denver's backfield, Marcus Mariota taking over in Washington, Michael Penix Jr. starting once healthy, and Malik Washington serving as Miami's top receiver, plus availability expectations for Detroit's injured safeties.
- Fox SportsDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Hit · 100Fox Sports states that a healthy Tua Tagovailoa will serve as Atlanta's backup quarterback in Week 3, with Michael Penix Jr. handling the starting duties against Green Bay.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Aaron JonesHit · 100In previewing the 10 most intriguing fantasy performers of Week 2, Fitzmaurice expects Atlanta's quarterback problems to persist with Tua Tagovailoa unlikely to play and Michael Penix Jr. not ready to return, flags Falcons slot corner Billy Bowman Jr. as a possible Week 2 returnee, and describes Aaron Jones as Minnesota's lead back and Kaelon Black as the clear backup to Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco.