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Decision Desk HQ PodcastOct 8, 2026

The host said Greg Abbott remains the likelier winner of the Texas governor's race, citing the forecast's 69% chance for them, slightly better for Republicans than the Florida contest.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Decision Desk HQ PodcastHear the original

0Miss · out of 100
Gina Hinojosa wonWhat happenedcalled Greg Abbott
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Decision Desk HQ Podcast said

I still think Paxon, excuse me, Abbott has a better chance. Okay. So 69% chance of winning.
Our reading: Greg Abbott to win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election
Where it was said
Decision Desk HQ Podcast
The episode
Forecast Update: Democrats have more than 50% chance of flipping both Senate & House
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidOct 8
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Greg Abbott to win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election

    What happenedGina Hinojosa woncalled Greg Abbott
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.03difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2026-governor-tx
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Republican
    in their words:
    69% chance of winning
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Gina Hinojosa
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    race name:
    2026 Texas gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Greg Abbott
    days before the vote when called:
    25
    difficulty:
    1.03
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

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