Geoffrey SkelleyOct 8, 2026
Walking through DDHQ's forecast, Skelley said James Talarico is narrowly favored in the Texas Senate race (58%), that Roger Marshall is favored in Kansas and the Republican nominee in South Carolina, that Tom Cotton is overwhelmingly safe in Arkansas, and that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody have the upper hand in Florida's governor and Senate special races.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Decision Desk HQ PodcastHear the original
4 of 6calls landed4 hits · 2 misses · all settled
66.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 6 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
6Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Geoffrey Skelley said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromTallarico's narrowly favored, and it's, you know, ticked up a little bit in his direction.
- Where it was said
- Decision Desk HQ Podcast
- The episode
- Forecast Update: Democrats have more than 50% chance of flipping both Senate & House
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 8
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
- 1Byron Donalds to win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election“So Byron Donalds has, an edge in Florida, but not a huge one... at the end of the day, this is one where Republicans have the upper hand.”
- 2Ashley Moody to win the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida“the senate race where Republican Ashley Moody is basically a three and four favorite to to win, this... That's a special election for Marco Rubio's seat”
- 3Tom Cotton to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas“Generally speaking, Arkansas is way too red of a state to imagine it it flipping. This is where fundamentals are doing a lot of work... look, Arkansas 96%”
- 4Darlene Graham (Republican) to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina“It's in the same range as the Kansas race, basically. They're very similar now where they lean Republican. They're most likely gonna go Republican.”
- 5Roger Marshall to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas“In our forecast, it is now, essentially, we categorize it as lean Republican... with Roger Marshall, the incumbent there having a a 67% chance of winning, so two and three”
- 6James Talarico to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas“Tallarico's narrowly favored... if Tallerico wins 50 out of every... Sorry. 58 out of every a 100 simulations that we run... the average across all of our forecast runs is that Tallerico wins very narrowly”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Donalds to win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election1 | Race Winners | Byron Donalds won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Ashley Moody to win the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida2 | Race Winners | Ashley Moody won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Tom Cotton to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas3 | Race Winners | Tom Cotton won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Darlene Graham (Republican) to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina4 | Race Winners | Annie Andrews won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Roger Marshall to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas5 | Race Winners | Adam Hamilton won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| James Talarico to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas6 | Race Winners | James Talarico won | 100 | 0 | +103 | |
| 6 calls · 4 hits · 2 misses · all settled | 66.7 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive6 checkable claims — 6 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 6 have settled, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Byron Donalds to win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election
What happenedByron Donalds woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.03difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-governor-fl
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- an edge in Florida, but not a huge one
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Byron Donalds
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 Florida gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Byron Donalds
- days before the vote when called:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Ashley Moody to win the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida
What happenedAshley Moody woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.03difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-fl-special
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- basically a three and four favorite
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Ashley Moody
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Ashley Moody
- days before the vote when called:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Tom Cotton to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas
What happenedTom Cotton woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.03difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-ar
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- Arkansas 96%
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Tom Cotton
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Tom Cotton
- days before the vote when called:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Darlene Graham (Republican) to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina
What happenedAnnie Andrews woncalled Darline Graham0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.03difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-senate-sc
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- lean Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Annie Andrews
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Darline Graham
- days before the vote when called:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Roger Marshall to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas
What happenedAdam Hamilton woncalled Roger Marshall0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.03difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-senate-ks
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- lean Republican, a 67% chance of winning
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Adam Hamilton
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Roger Marshall
- days before the vote when called:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
James Talarico to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
What happenedJames Talarico woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.03difficulty=+103skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-tx
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 103
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- narrowly favored, 58%
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- James Talarico
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- James Talarico
- days before the vote when called:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once
66.7naive 50
The races in this take
every call on each- 2026 Florida gubernatorial electionByron Donalds wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 U.S. Senate special election in FloridaAshley Moody wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in ArkansasTom Cotton wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in South CarolinaAnnie Andrews wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in KansasAdam Hamilton wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in TexasJames Talarico wonEvery call on it →
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.